Will Russia Retreat in Donbass Again?

It is very possible.

Occasionally I talk about the war in Ukraine on this blog. Only when I’m not busy promoting conspiracy theories and my occultic beliefs, of course. But you could be forgiven for forgetting that a war was going on because of how slow the slog is and because the media is now enthralled by the Gaza melodrama.

SPOILER: Israel will either bite off north Gaza or take the entirety of Gaza as time passes and eject the Gazans into Egypt from where they will then be sent directly to your neighborhoods in the West to teach you a lesson about tolerance and diversity.

Back in the Slavlands though, for the last two months, we have once again been regaled by tales of an imminent Shoigu trap or breakthrough around Avdeevka. The Russian MoD has apparently, once again, tricked the UAF into defending itself from clumsy and costly and incomprehensible Russian offensives that gain a few meters, lose a few meters and litter the battlefield with hundreds of dead.

I remember wondering what the point of Avdeevka even was when the action began.

Should the area be taken … well, absolutely nothing else will happen. This area isn’t crucial. It isn’t the lynch-pin of the entire Anglo-Satanist defense. There are no Oprah tunnels in the area. It’s just a blown-out useless wreck, just like Bakhmut before it.

The position of the town on the map is interesting in its own right though.

As you can see for yourselves, it is a stone’s throw away from Donetsk.

That is, after 2 years of fighting, the mighty Shoigu army hasn’t been able to dislodge the Ukrainians from their initial positions around Donetsk. Initially, the plan was to go around Donbass, and for good reason, because it would be costly and pointless to attack fortified areas head on. But, once the initial SMO campaign collapsed last summer due to Shoigu mismanagement and secret backdoor shenanigans, the Russian MoD has elected to bang its head repeatedly against these fortified positions, while claiming that they have destroyed the Ukrainian army several times over.

This nonsense is still being peddled to the dwindling number of dupes still willing to take them seriously, but actually, the shilling has died down noticeably for awhile now. This is because Moscow wants to wind the war down. They’ve even taken down Z-propaganda in the major cities, although offers for contracts to professional soldiers remain in place.

NOTICE: Konashenkov has stopped giving his “sit-reps” because of how damaging they were to Kremlin credibility.

Fairytale story hour featuring the MoD’s top spokesman!

After the initial spring campaign, they claimed that they had destroyed the UAF and then by fall they claimed that they were fighting a new NATO army (???). So, who are they fighting now? And how is it that Ukraine is still putting up a fight even though ZAnon told us that Kiev was already “squeezing blood from a stone” all the way back in winter?

Rhetorical.

All the recent actions have taken place around Avdeevka. And yes, we’ve been told that a Russian breakthrough is imminent. No, this isn’t true, of course. Here is what Russia’s war-correspondents report about the reality of the situation there:

Recently, Russian assault units were able to occupy about ten buildings in the industrial zone of Avdeevka. This is one of the most difficult sections of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ fortified area in the suburbs of Donetsk. At the same time, observers note that advancement is being carried out by Russian troops at the cost of heavy losses.

Fighting in the industrial zone of Avdeevka has been going on since 2014. At one time, the legendary Somali battalion, led by Mikhail Tolstykh, suffered serious losses here. Since then, the Ukrainian military has been able to build serious fortifications here, which are now being stormed by the Russian army.

Experts, analyzing the fighting in this area, note that the advance is taking place in a narrow corridor 4 kilometers wide in one direction with an obvious goal for the enemy - access to Berdychi through Stepovo. Our units are suffering heavy losses.

After almost every attack, the Russian military has to take a break of several days. During this time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces manage to increase their reserves. But despite this, the Russian army has already been able to achieve tangible results compared to previous years.

Today, Russian attack aircraft have made significant progress in the private sector, which has been practically wiped off the face of the earth by artillery fire. The occupation of this territory will allow the development of further operations in the low-rise buildings of Avdeevka itself. Along with this, there will also be an opportunity to enter fairly large forest areas to the north and south of the industrial zone. But it is already obvious that the assault on the Avdeevka fortified area of ​​the Armed Forces of Ukraine could become one of the bloodiest operations of the Northern Military District.

In other words, once again, Russia’s MoD is throwing away countless lives for absolutely fuck-all nothing. Unless you believe in secret interdimensional human sacrifice blood magic plans, this is all totally pointless at this point. All Russia has to do (or can do, really) is just sit tight, build fortifications, and pray that the interdimensional child-eaters in the West offer them terms.

That’s it.

Period.

The war is over.

Instead, they keep the illusion of staying busy. And storming enemy fortifications head-on is a very costly endeavor. Sure, if you surround a garrison and cut them off, you can flip the script on them like Wagner did in Soledar. But no, they haven’t been able to pull this off anywhere else since. So, if anyone is being “attritioned” here, it is the Russians, obviously. The total KIA for this war is going to come out looking more or less even. There won’t be any “14 Ukrainian deaths for 1 Russian loss”, I guarantee you that.

Wake up already.

Use some common sense, at least.

Put down Revelation and clear your head of that gibberish, please!

So, in terms of reporting on the developments on the front, we just have more of the same: madness and stupidity. And if all I had to report on was just more mindless grinding for blown-out commieblock towns, I wouldn’t even bother bringing this story up or blogging today. No, we’ve got some troubling developments occurring in the area that are worth mentioning here.

The Russian state media casually reported yesterday that the Russian army was planning on a series of retreats. This caused a bit of a shock because the lines are stable. Especially the defenses along the Dnepr river. To retreat from these lines would be inexcusable and unexplainable using military logic.

And yet, that is what the Russian state media was reporting!

Then, following on the heels of the reports, the Kremlin issued a denial and accused its own media of starting a “provocation”. Enemies everywhere, eh? The Kremlin’s condemnation of the neo-Nazis running *squints* Russian state media channels RIA Novostia and TASS is bizarre, frankly. Jokes aside, the Kremlin literally did say that the release of this information was a “provocation”. And this essentially translates to “sabotage” — they are accusing their own media of sabotaging the war effort.

OK? OK.

It does beg the question(s):

• why are Strelkov’s 7th columnists working at RIA and TASS?

• didn’t the FSB run background checks on the Satanists who infiltrated the state media?

• why did the neo-paganists wait 2 years to launch their great “sabotage” psy-op?

• how did this discrediting story slip by the FSB censors who are tasked with running the state media in Russia?

Right?

Accusing them of “provocations” or “sabotage” raises many questions that, if the Kremlin actually believed the allegations they were making, they’d probably have to follow up on. But no, what is really going on is something far more sinister. It was almost certainly the Kremlin that requested these reports, or made sure that the state media dutifully reported on it.

What was the goal though?

Ah, time to tighten your tin-foil hat, because here is where it gets interesting. Barring the preposterous notion that RIA Novosti and TACC decided to “provoke” their paymasters for no discernible reason, the only logical explanation for the story is that a retreat is being toyed with by the higher-ups.

Here is what old man Kvachkov had to say about the strange info psy-op. He does a good job of explaining the conspiracy theory in broad strokes:

TASS and RIA Novosti canceled reports about the decision of the Ministry of Defense to regroup troops near the Dnieper. They said that troops would be transferred “to more advantageous positions” east of the river. The news was annulled on the grounds that it was “released erroneously,” TASS writes.

The ruling worms do nothing by mistake. This supposedly random [news-report] was done deliberately. They are preparing public opinion for new regroupings and difficult decisions.

“New regroupings” and “difficult decisions” are joke phrases that refer to previous retreats. These were the euphemisms used to describe them and now these phrases are used to mock the Kremlin.

Regrouping is already an established term. During last year’s surrender of the Kharkov region, all this political technology abomination called treason a regrouping. Therefore, public opinion is now being prepared for possible new “regroupings.” There is virtually no doubt that negotiations are taking place in secret from the public. Their possible results are already being thrown into the information field, in particular that there is nothing terrible if the remnants of Ukraine are accepted into the EU.

Kvatchov didn’t mention this, but we’ve had similar disinfo psy-ops occur right ahead of the retreats from Snake Island and the regrouping from Kherson. An entire month of conflicting reports, heming and hawing and moral soul-searching among the political elite (lol) preceded the Kherson retreat. Remember?

The reason why they would use such a tactic is actually quite interesting:

1. It seeds the idea in the public consciousness, but with plausible deniability

2. It reduces the shock of the “difficult decision” by letting it air out for a bit preemptively

3. It allows them to tweak their messaging based on the response from the public to the beta news release

When I heard the news yesterday it was quite a shock. One moment I think that Moscow will at least hold on to the gains they’ve made so far before going into negotiations. Then all of a sudden, I hear news about the most egregious retreat of the war yet. There can’t be a military reason for another retreat. It is hardly even possible to retreat again.

And yet …

From a zoomed-out birds-eye perspective of the conflict, Russia remains on the back foot. Sure, they defended from the bizarre counter-offensive, but, armies still capable of fighting seriously and winning wars usually go on counter-offensives when their enemies offensives fail. That is, in fact, the best time to do it. However, Russia has been fighting a defensive war ever since last summer, as I like to keep harping about over and over again. There are no large offensives — only Ukraine does those. Russia does do localized, tactical operations at huge human cost like Bakhmut or Ugledar or Avdeevka.

These are done because:

• this is all Russia is capable of anymore — they cannot do large combined armed assaults anymore

• they don’t have enough men to go on serious encirclement-capable offensives and they stubbornly refuse to raise up and train more

• they help the UAF out immensely, because Russian troops storms pre-prepared, fortified kill zones that Kiev has prepared beforehand

To actually win the war, Moscow would have to raise another large army and bring 2 million soldiers to bear in a large operation re-attacking Ukraine from the north and south, encircling Donbass, taking the river and collapsing the Ukrainian war effort. They’d also have to take west Ukraine at this point as well, because the war would continue even if they took Kiev at this point. By continuing to fight in the way that they are doing, Moscow is simply increasing the number of dead, and trying to stall for time, hoping against hope that the boot will be lifted from their neck.

Some people say that the Gaza things means that Kiev is finished and will be forced to surrender.

Consider the alternative view of the situation though:

• Gaza is a joke.

• How many IDF soldier have died? Will even 1k die on the Israeli side by the time that this little revolt is put down?

• They’ve already cut Gaza in half and are squeezing the north. They don’t care about killing civilians and blatantly flatten churches and hospitals killing thousands with their bombs while citing the Bible for doing so.

• No one will punish them for it and the Israelis know this.

• The Arab leadership of neighboring countries is bought and paid for.

• Furthermore, the IDF don’t require millions of bombs and tanks to crush a few uppity Hamas, whose leadership is already owned by Mossad.

• Hamas only exists to be scapegoated in the interest of Israel’s expansionist agenda and they do a great job of portraying the Gazan cause poorly.

• It is remarkable just how much support Palestine has in the West, but that is 90% the result of mass-migration that was engineered by the Israelites in the first place.

Are we really to believe that Hamas is about to pull off a major upset? That this little revolt will require all the resources ear-marked for the destruction of the great northern Amalek? Well, only if Iran blunders into this trap like Tel-Aviv and Washington want them to. It is very possible because Tehran is almost as compromised as Moscow is. The mullahs are all extremely old, keep their money in the West and they sent their kids and grandkids to study in the West. You do the math on that one.

What makes the retreat scenario plausible is that Moscow has done similar retreats before, true. But worse than that, Moscow is running out of men and Kiev isn’t. The UAF continues to raise fresh troops and to enjoy a numerical advantage over Russia. This means that they also do a better job in the battles because they always have men to plug the holes before Russian troops, overstretched and exhausted, can exploit them. Russia only waited until the initial 200k SMO troops were totally exhausted and the lines broken before announcing a flash mobilization and throwing bodies at the UAF, like cannon-fodder, to plug gaps last fall. They could have taken the time to prepare more men, ahead of time, but no!

No, no, no, you little Satano-Nazi, that’s not how we do things! Ki-yah!

Allow me to share another interesting report from Russian Telegram samizdat that I believe is worth considering:

And again about the larger battalions.

“Since the beginning of the year, about 410 thousand people have been hired for contract service,” according to Medvedev.

As I understand it, these 410 thousand have already included the 1st and 2nd AK LDNR, as well as all the mobilized LDNR with a bunch of “Donetsk jokesters”, when the unit in fact no longer exists, and yet salaries continue to be accrued.

Yet more reports of phantom units that only exist to get government money paid out to them which then disappear into the pockets of Shoigu’s officers.

I will need to do an entire report on these persistent rumors of massive embezzlement on the Russian side. It has already been reported that Kiev was stealing 70% of Western money. I wonder how much Moscow is stealing?

They probably included many mobilized people there, who, after spending a year in Russia and listening to the threats of “those who don’t sign up, are on their own,” also signed the contract. In the zone itself, some of those mobilized also sign on.

So, of that 400k number, this report alleges that there is double-counting going on. Already mobilized soldiers are being forced to sign contracts with Shoigu. This counts as a new recruit, but in reality, it is an old recruit who has simply changed his paperwork. And the more men Shoigu raises, the more money he gets to pocket from the Russian treasure chest to fund his private army and luxurious lifestyle. No one is going to check the uncomfortable detail that he is simply cannibalizing men from existing units, not enticing new recruits as he is supposed to be doing because if they do, and they find out that this is indeed the case, then they find themselves in the unenviable position of discrediting the Shoigu, for which there are dire consequences.

In addition to the above parts, there is a feeling that the Redut [shoigu’s pmc] ones were also included here, but we will talk about this a little later. Also included in this number are the usual flow of contractniks to units that did not participate in the Northern Military District.

And, of course, there was a certain number of volunteers, the flow of which is constantly decreasing. Everyone who wanted to go to fight themselves has already left a long time ago. Soon there will have been two years of war, I remind you.

Yes, there are limited amounts of well-meaning, but naive patriots to exploit in any given society. The Liberals of Moscow and St. P and EKB won’t sign up to fight. And yet, the Kremlin has done everything in its power to liberalize Russian society. Self-destructive behavior like that makes a lot more sense though when you realize that the xenocracy running Russia needs to liberalize society to make itself feel safer.

That is what they always do.

And making Russia less Russian is their top priority, not the SMO.

There is a permanent shortage of personnel in the units. They are trying to convince us with all their might that there are enough people and that there will be no second wave of mobilization, it is not needed. But it will be the same as with the first one: they didn’t want to make unpopular decisions at an important moment - they had to make them when the front was already crumbling.

This war is so depressingly monotonous.

It goes like this: Russia blows holes in the UAF defenses and prepares an assault. Ukraine scrambles reserves to the defenses and repulses the Russian attack. Russian troops limp back to their lines to repeat the process and try again. Ad infinitum.

Only, if Russia doesn’t raise more men for the meat-grinder and Ukraine does, then eventually there will be holes along the Russian defenses. Especially if they continue to throw lives away in pointless actions like in Avdeevka. Or if they liquidate their best military organizations (Wagner) and send their pros to Africa to help the oligarchs score some profit off natural resources there.

If the recruitment numbers are fake as some analysts claim, then it makes sense that eventually Russia would have to retreat. Some level of logic would seem to indicate that they can’t just keep retreating and have to hold on to something to be able to negotiate with the West for peace.

But this Not-War has a logic of its own, I’m afraid.