The bitter, bitter irony and postmodern absurdity of the arch anti Nazi Kremlinites finishing the job that they accuse National Socialist of starting. The Eastern Slavs are undergoing a blood letting right now that they likely won't soon recover from and it couldn't have been done without the Kremlins help. Putin showing Himmler and Trotsky what true de-slavization looks like.
Well as a former Putin fan if I had known that denazifcation of Ukraine meant exterminating the Russian male peasant population of Ukraine and feeding the guys with swastika tattoos tiramisu I would have been anti SMO from day 1.
Perhaps one should ask why WW1 tactics are in play when there is total situational awareness of the battleground courtesy of satellite imagery? Logically, men and materiel are being chewed up intentionally - this far beyond incompetence.
One might think for the costs expended on conventional fighting, swarms of thousands of drones augmented by ground support would be more effective. But that would cut into someone's profits wouldn't it?
Are the principal actors even independent?
As for Iran etc, Saddam bent over backwards to be US compliant and was suckered into Kuwait. If a casus belli can't be provoked it will be manufactured. Full spectrum dominance is US policy. And they want ALL the oil in the ME. Iran has demonstrated sophisticated missile tech and can't be invaded realistically on the ground which means you know what. Have the US slide rules overheated? Or do they have space-based superweapons?
Good work, as always, Skywalker...Forget Avdveeka...it's main role as the Death Star that has been bombing Donetsk for all these years needs to be taken out, somehow, it really does...it literally SHOULD have been from the beginning! Right now, the AFU have been pressing very hard on the left bank of Kherson, just north of Crimea, for at least a couple of weeks; successfully(!). They've established a strong beach-head, continue reinforcing it, and have some means of disrupting the Russian drones and all EW (a "dome", not sure what that is?)... The Russian units there are being hammered; they don't even have proper anti-air systems (!?). The AFU wants a big push to do what they, and especially their Lords in Washington, D.C. (Domicile-of-Cohens!), have been salivating over from the very beginning: to sever Crimea from the mainland...even if temporarily, and they may just do it. ONE railway to crimea from mainland Russia (excluding the obviously vulnerable Kherson Bridge network). It would cause havoc for the transference of troops and heavy weapons from other sectors, which in itself could lead to a collapse elsewhere on the front. Watch there closely in the next few days.
"To actually win the war, Moscow would have to raise another large army and bring 2 million soldiers to bear in a large operation re-attacking Ukraine from the north and south, encircling Donbass, taking the river and collapsing the Ukrainian war effort."
To this child of the first cold war, the idea that Russia doesn't have an extra army or three waiting in the wings to finish the job is rather shocking. But matches up with all the facts I know about post-Soviet Russian conscription and chronic personelle shortages (by the time you have trained this years batch, it's time for them go home again).
Still the difference between what you know in your head and what your heart and gut insists can be rather painful at times.
There is so much produced water in the Permian HZ play they can't rid of the stuff without causing Grandma's china to rattle off the shelf and break in the middle of 5.3 earthquake. If they can't shove it into deep, near basement formations, they shove it into shallow, oil-baring formations it seems. This renders conventional reservoirs with millions of barrels of remaining oil left to be recovered, useless. The oil in those shallow formations has very low finding and extraction costs and generally contains the sort of middle gravity, middle sulfur content oil our country's refineries need. The kind we do not have to export.
The three TRRC Commissioners know all that and don't care. They have essentially taken it upon themselves to ignore the rule of law regarding the protection of correlative rights, prevention of waste and conservation of our State's natural resources.
Who was it that decided barely affordable tight oil was more important than shallow, low-decline conventional production in the US?' There is not a TRRC Statwide Rule on the books that does not have a tight oil related exception attached to it, from spacing between wells and from lease lines, to flaring to injection pressures for SWD to a form of forced pooling in Texas that does not even allow forced pooling.
The tight oil phenomena sucked all available capital out of the the rest of the domestic oil industry in the US; in the process leasehold, drill, completion and labor costs are now out of reach of shallow, vertical operations. Lenders, investors, regulators and stupid governmental oil policies have disincentivised the maintenance and arrest of decline rates in the conventional industry. URR of oil in our country will suffer because of that. Tens of thousands of shallow, vertical wells in the US have been shut in since 2018; taxpayers will likely be left with the bill to plug them. In my opinion there is a direct correlation between this loss of conventional production, and sudden surge of unconventional shale production, in the US. The tight oil phenomena pretty much destroyed the GOM.
Which brings me once again to this chart from Art Berman that my landman friend from Midland sent me, below.
Sixty nine percent of all US oil production is now from unconventional tight oil sources...stuff that declines like a ship anchor dropped into the open ocean and that requires $12 MM wells, one after another, constantly, to replace. Look at what is happening to Alaska, the GOM and onshore conventional categories in the US. That should frighten the hell out of you. Conventional production grew, then declined over a 120 year period in the US with annualized decline rates of 3.3% per year.
All of our oil eggs in America are now in the Permian Basin basket.
When the expected outcome doesn't happen, a hidden agenda is in play. At some point, it almost doesn't matter what that agenda is because all the players sense it and become disillusioned and stop participating (to the extent they can). Laws, social constraints, all the norms of civilization are breaking down because we are an immoral people now. The greed and duplicitous behaviour of Shoigu and other Russian leaders is a mirror-image of what is happening in the West with politicians sending their own under-funded militaries to fight unwinnable wars while fleecing their citizens to line their own pockets. If nothing else, Revelations provides the masses with a satisfying promise of ultimate retribution for all these miscreants.
You raise a hell of a lot of interesting conjectures. One waits eagerly for follow up which produces some evidence pro or con.
My (layman's) take on Russia's military performance is that it is okay in reality. They started from a bad place as you love pointing out... your whole shtick really... and we can therefore find every sensible reason to excuse any military performance 'shortcomings' easily enough.
The biggest single criticism of Russia's (which isn't 'Russia's' it's 'the Allies') performance is as it has always been: absence of a massive offensive.
I find that bordering on ludicrous but it's persistent.
Why? Is the first question. Where to? Is the next.
Yourself you spend most of your time pointing at 'behind the scenes' or 'political' factors so you should give great weight to them in relation to the onground war. But when you do it is always from the same angle: political factors have led to 'bad' underperformance of the military.
But the point is 'political factors' ARE the essence of this whole conflict. To where the battlefield is of secondary importance. See?
FIRST: political factors. Put the attention there. That is the centre. That is the essence. That is the focus.
IT influences the battlefield, macro and micro.
Not: FIRST: battlefield... IT influences political factors.
Yep, it always actually goes both way.
But the main is 'off battlefield'.
Without a doubt. I'm sure you know that.
The thing is the battlefield is serving its political purpose right now.
We can assume.
Contemplate the possible future. Much more important area for thought. How can the war possibly end without the Allies completely conquering the whole of Ukraine: unconditional surrender?
It cannot. Why? Because any 'rump' would invite USA and NATO in there and there's the very thing Russia does not want. You said that yourself I think, way back.
But there's no chance the Allies can completely whip Ukraine. The closer it came to it the more far out desperate measures would be taken to keep a 'rump' alive.
So there's the real place for discussion and analysis for there's where the war really is: what outcome?
Avdeevka I don't see as pointless either.
It is merely a remote suburb of Donetsk or a satellite city if you like and ideally it would have been taken a long time ago. We await inside information from those who really know about why it wasn't.
But taking it now relieves for the first time in 9 years the city of Donetsk from indiscriminate shelling. The morale boost is immense.
And the training of troops and the learning of new techniques.
I don't know what the hell is going on. I don't think anyone does. The reporting we get is threadbare paltry stuff. Especially considering it is 2023 and all. Like not just talking about modern tech presumably able to give us straight from the battlefield, no, not that, but all the 'old soldiers' - must be thousands of them now, hundreds with some authority, who 'were there'. In 2022. In early 2023. And now are 'out' for one reason or another. You know? There must be a large repository of knowledge 'back home' now that could be spewing out info about the realities of it all.
But we hear nothing.
So I don't know what's going on but I hear of the Allies needing to make up deficiencies in drones for instance and all sorts of other things - some that you love talking about like corruption in the army of all kinds... and all these things point to the usefulness of 'pauses'.
Blah, blah... I'm just rambling....
What I mean is
1. I don't think things are all that bad at all. I can find a POV where it's all reasonable and good.
2. The 'real' war is not on the battlefield and we get NO info about it.
3. Following on from (2) is the fascinating question of what possible acceptable future could there possibly be?
Last sentence: '...this not-war has a logic of its own..' YES. And that's the interest. Not a throwaway line.. 'I've given up on it because it has logic of its own that none of us can fathom'. No. It's a truth. Of course. It has a logic of its own.
The not war served many purposes. It distracted the masses from the crimes of covid and in my opinion that was one of the main goals. The question has to be asked "who benefits" well certainly not us. It's not just the riping out the Slavs it's the whole of white humanity and I think you know that Rurik. I think the truth lies somewhere in between. Rurik is right about the 2 million man army, but that is how you fight a war and not a NOT war.
all races are facing a death knell, that's just the way it goes. 'spin' to what, to where? to where it is a good thing? I wouldn't try to do that.
but it being such a bad thing then all effort and all pontificating should be directed towards the people themselves and trying to get them to save themselves wouldn't you think?
i've never seen any effort from anyone in that direction.
i'll do some myself in order to illustrate what I mean - there may be some of people in question reading:
'Stop fighting your brothers. Can you not see you are puppets of the evil manipulators and the American war profiteers is all? '
What profit could a Kiev Ukrainian expect to get from the conquest of Donbas that is worth giving his life for?
I rather think it is. But the Russian propaganda machine is nothing remotely like the Western one. It's tiny in its quantity and reach.
What disappoints me is the lack of any effort on the part of the 'alt media'.
That is us, you and me, all of these Youtube vids and Substack authors and so on - all the places that attempt to tell the truth and show the truth but mainly, well, entirely:
. Fail to constantly impress that it IS a war between brothers - a civil war between Ukrainians
and
. the solution is for Ukrainians to join together in refusing to fight each other and throw the Americans etc. out.
There's those that quibble that now DPR and LPR have federated with Russia they now are Russian. That's a bs quibble that helps no one. We know the people are the same people on the same land and we know that Kiev and USA etc. still insist they ARE 'Ukrainian'.
Doesn't matter what anyone calls them. There were 35 million Ukrainians occupying land and owning houses and properties etc and splitting them apart and calling one part 'this' and the other part 'that' doesn' t change the fact that those same people are still occupying that same land and owning them same houses and businesses, etc.. You know?
Well I try to explain this to naive people who have no idea where Ukraine is on a map and trust what they see on the news and then ofc you get accused of being pro Russian. The CIA has been in Ukraine pre fall of the USSR stoking the flames. The Ukrainians have swallowed so much though as well. Imagine when Ireland became free of the British if they had stopped the teaching of English in schools. That's exactly what the US has done with Ukraine with Russian and replace it with quite a dead language and got the Ukrainians to reject the idea of Kiev and Rus and their Slavic heritage. Maybe they're doomed to fail due to corruption that's why Putin never wanted them back in '14? They're just not the brightest of Slavs? The same could be said of the Irish actually their civil war and blood letting some argue achieved what the English were about to offer up and the civil war cost more Irish lives than that of British occupation. Not sure if that last point but Neil Jordan said as much in an interview on his film Michael Collins.
To come back to our point do you mean instead of engaging with the everyman I should of laboured the civil war arguement to our community more? We pretty divided ourselves Would ZAnon elements really be able to digest this level of thought? Surely our lot like you and I know this so who specifically have we gotta convince? And what would the aim and results of this be? Sorry to be a party pooper as devils advocate but I do at least hear you!
Hi, and thanks for all that. Makes a lot of sense to me.
The line I am pushing is a simple basic one:
'This is not a war of Russian aggression against Ukraine'.
That's all.
Because I think that is the basic idea they (the masses, all the different aspects of them) are willing to fund or happy to go alone with.
AND I think it is the doctrine that the Kiev Ukrainians have had rammed down their throats and pushed into their heads.
That simple phrase is hopefully the lever to open a chink in their heads to let some light in.
My riposte to 'You are a Russia lover' is either of two:
'Nope, I'm a people lover' or 'Nope, I'm a Ukrainian lover'.
The latter one probably the best when talking to weeping hearts about Ukraine.
Because they generally are weeping about Kiev Ukraine aren't they? And they're astounded when I claim to be loving Ukrainians more than they are.
But it is easy, of course, for me to point out that I want ALL Ukrainians alive. That I want their 500,000 dead alive whereas they and their govt is happy they're dead 'in the cause' and are pushing for more to die, 'in the cause'.
And all like that is the direction I try to go....
Oh.. 'who have we to convince?' Well the ordinary shmuck in the street. I want it to be common knowledge. I want it to appear on every cell phone, you know?
They - the evil 'THEY' - won an immense propaganda coup and they're still winning it. Every cellphone in the land is bearing news and videos about the 'war between Ukraine and Russia'
See?
I want that corrected.
The ordinary folks are quite capable of picking up on the truth and passing it swiftly around, all across the internet to every other 'shmuck' in the (I am a shmuck myself, of course). and I'm waiting and hoping for that to happen.
Maybe it has to be put in the local parlance, so to speak. Like a local analogy.
So try to think of one.
You need a background of a people in a nation with two heritages, or a mixed heritage.
Maybe like Latinos in Californial.
So it's like as though the Californian govt made Spanish illegal in California and started imposing all kinds of ethnic penalties and prohibitions on southern californian counties with the highest Latino population.
And in the finish they even started shelling them and invaded them and in 2022 were on the edge of a second, full scale invasion.
And after a few years of asking, since the 2014 invasion, eventually in 2022 Mexico stepped in to help them.
And when she stepped in those counties already were partially invaded and even to this day they still are. Those counties still have not got their land back.
And now they claim to be part of Mexico but California won't recognise that.
And here's the point of the analogy:
Everyone is calling it a Mexico v California war.
They are all saying Mexico is invading but the invasion to this day is still California govt. into those southern counties.
And now California has lost 500,000 dead in this attempt to subjugate the southern counties.
And now California makes no bones about it: it intends to wipe out every Spanish speaking Californian and every trace of Spanish or Spanish influence of any kind. And they intend to even attack and conquer Mexico if they get half a chance.
But California is broke so it has to borrow from the Federal govt., the USA. And the Fed Govt is as happy as Larry because it is making millions, billions of dollars.
And that's where we are at today. And the Californians are dying like flies and if they lived and if they conquered all they would get would be southern counties littered with corpses, the undying hatred of Mexico, a short orgy of violence and torture and killing and the demobilisation back into civvy street where no doubt unemployment awaits and without doubt future life with a govt practiced in ethnic cleansing an genocide.
Find the villain in all that.
Easier to find the fools: the Californians who went along with the mantra: let's drive out the Latinos.
Maybe 'topical' or 'local' analogies like that might help. Put it to them like that. "In this scenario who would you support: US govt. , California govt., southern counties, Mexico? and what do you think is the answer to that mess?
I think this is a more easypill to swallow in the way it's put https://youtu.be/5DNGuJUwzfw?si=iCzbP8x8FVWKyOJ_ and an honest take on it all right now as in the world. Neil is also "friends" (appeared on a podcast) with James Corbet and I doubt he'll be on GB news given the mainstream direction they're going.
The average age of the Ukrainian soldier is 41 so that puts a tiny whole in Ruriks arguement but I wouldn't be surprised if it was similar for the Russian's. And there is some strategic advantage to taking Avdiivka as someone else pointed out to stop the shelling but yes the way they're going about it is all wrong! And that hints at of lack of man power. A 2 million man army would of been the answer if this was a war and simultaneous battle fronts from all angles including Belarus and Transnistria.
But remember this is a NOT war and designed to distract and confuse the masses until the next thing. The goal was never for either side to win all out. We're missing the big picture if we thought that was ever possible. A few people have made a heck of a lot of money though.
On a side note Rurik spot on with Iran! They love the West a fly a 747 full of money to the UK to bank with them too.
The bitter, bitter irony and postmodern absurdity of the arch anti Nazi Kremlinites finishing the job that they accuse National Socialist of starting. The Eastern Slavs are undergoing a blood letting right now that they likely won't soon recover from and it couldn't have been done without the Kremlins help. Putin showing Himmler and Trotsky what true de-slavization looks like.
Well as a former Putin fan if I had known that denazifcation of Ukraine meant exterminating the Russian male peasant population of Ukraine and feeding the guys with swastika tattoos tiramisu I would have been anti SMO from day 1.
Perhaps one should ask why WW1 tactics are in play when there is total situational awareness of the battleground courtesy of satellite imagery? Logically, men and materiel are being chewed up intentionally - this far beyond incompetence.
One might think for the costs expended on conventional fighting, swarms of thousands of drones augmented by ground support would be more effective. But that would cut into someone's profits wouldn't it?
Are the principal actors even independent?
As for Iran etc, Saddam bent over backwards to be US compliant and was suckered into Kuwait. If a casus belli can't be provoked it will be manufactured. Full spectrum dominance is US policy. And they want ALL the oil in the ME. Iran has demonstrated sophisticated missile tech and can't be invaded realistically on the ground which means you know what. Have the US slide rules overheated? Or do they have space-based superweapons?
https://twitter.com/Pataramesh/status/1724432927788831026
Iranians are on to it:
With the jet powered "Shahed-136", Iran may soon create a potent "kill-chain" against opposing air-defense
This hypothesized capability has 3 components with all required systems already proven
➡️ A thread on how it could theoretically work
Brilliant coverage Rolo. Painful but as is well known - the truth hurts.
Good work, as always, Skywalker...Forget Avdveeka...it's main role as the Death Star that has been bombing Donetsk for all these years needs to be taken out, somehow, it really does...it literally SHOULD have been from the beginning! Right now, the AFU have been pressing very hard on the left bank of Kherson, just north of Crimea, for at least a couple of weeks; successfully(!). They've established a strong beach-head, continue reinforcing it, and have some means of disrupting the Russian drones and all EW (a "dome", not sure what that is?)... The Russian units there are being hammered; they don't even have proper anti-air systems (!?). The AFU wants a big push to do what they, and especially their Lords in Washington, D.C. (Domicile-of-Cohens!), have been salivating over from the very beginning: to sever Crimea from the mainland...even if temporarily, and they may just do it. ONE railway to crimea from mainland Russia (excluding the obviously vulnerable Kherson Bridge network). It would cause havoc for the transference of troops and heavy weapons from other sectors, which in itself could lead to a collapse elsewhere on the front. Watch there closely in the next few days.
"To actually win the war, Moscow would have to raise another large army and bring 2 million soldiers to bear in a large operation re-attacking Ukraine from the north and south, encircling Donbass, taking the river and collapsing the Ukrainian war effort."
To this child of the first cold war, the idea that Russia doesn't have an extra army or three waiting in the wings to finish the job is rather shocking. But matches up with all the facts I know about post-Soviet Russian conscription and chronic personelle shortages (by the time you have trained this years batch, it's time for them go home again).
Still the difference between what you know in your head and what your heart and gut insists can be rather painful at times.
Yes it hurts that is for sure. Consider Putin always as a double agent. Consider how truly great Russia would be without the corruption.
It would be naive to imagine similar levels of corruption/shortsightedness don't exist in the US MI complex.
Any weaknesses are likely to be exposed soon.
The below shows the US is approaching energy crisis.
https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/forum-stuff/we-don-t-need-no-stinking-regulations/edit
We Don't Need No Stinking Regulations !
There is so much produced water in the Permian HZ play they can't rid of the stuff without causing Grandma's china to rattle off the shelf and break in the middle of 5.3 earthquake. If they can't shove it into deep, near basement formations, they shove it into shallow, oil-baring formations it seems. This renders conventional reservoirs with millions of barrels of remaining oil left to be recovered, useless. The oil in those shallow formations has very low finding and extraction costs and generally contains the sort of middle gravity, middle sulfur content oil our country's refineries need. The kind we do not have to export.
The three TRRC Commissioners know all that and don't care. They have essentially taken it upon themselves to ignore the rule of law regarding the protection of correlative rights, prevention of waste and conservation of our State's natural resources.
Who was it that decided barely affordable tight oil was more important than shallow, low-decline conventional production in the US?' There is not a TRRC Statwide Rule on the books that does not have a tight oil related exception attached to it, from spacing between wells and from lease lines, to flaring to injection pressures for SWD to a form of forced pooling in Texas that does not even allow forced pooling.
The tight oil phenomena sucked all available capital out of the the rest of the domestic oil industry in the US; in the process leasehold, drill, completion and labor costs are now out of reach of shallow, vertical operations. Lenders, investors, regulators and stupid governmental oil policies have disincentivised the maintenance and arrest of decline rates in the conventional industry. URR of oil in our country will suffer because of that. Tens of thousands of shallow, vertical wells in the US have been shut in since 2018; taxpayers will likely be left with the bill to plug them. In my opinion there is a direct correlation between this loss of conventional production, and sudden surge of unconventional shale production, in the US. The tight oil phenomena pretty much destroyed the GOM.
Which brings me once again to this chart from Art Berman that my landman friend from Midland sent me, below.
Sixty nine percent of all US oil production is now from unconventional tight oil sources...stuff that declines like a ship anchor dropped into the open ocean and that requires $12 MM wells, one after another, constantly, to replace. Look at what is happening to Alaska, the GOM and onshore conventional categories in the US. That should frighten the hell out of you. Conventional production grew, then declined over a 120 year period in the US with annualized decline rates of 3.3% per year.
All of our oil eggs in America are now in the Permian Basin basket.
When the expected outcome doesn't happen, a hidden agenda is in play. At some point, it almost doesn't matter what that agenda is because all the players sense it and become disillusioned and stop participating (to the extent they can). Laws, social constraints, all the norms of civilization are breaking down because we are an immoral people now. The greed and duplicitous behaviour of Shoigu and other Russian leaders is a mirror-image of what is happening in the West with politicians sending their own under-funded militaries to fight unwinnable wars while fleecing their citizens to line their own pockets. If nothing else, Revelations provides the masses with a satisfying promise of ultimate retribution for all these miscreants.
A whole load more people have to die before this is over. Just reminds me of that film Fury.
You raise a hell of a lot of interesting conjectures. One waits eagerly for follow up which produces some evidence pro or con.
My (layman's) take on Russia's military performance is that it is okay in reality. They started from a bad place as you love pointing out... your whole shtick really... and we can therefore find every sensible reason to excuse any military performance 'shortcomings' easily enough.
The biggest single criticism of Russia's (which isn't 'Russia's' it's 'the Allies') performance is as it has always been: absence of a massive offensive.
I find that bordering on ludicrous but it's persistent.
Why? Is the first question. Where to? Is the next.
Yourself you spend most of your time pointing at 'behind the scenes' or 'political' factors so you should give great weight to them in relation to the onground war. But when you do it is always from the same angle: political factors have led to 'bad' underperformance of the military.
But the point is 'political factors' ARE the essence of this whole conflict. To where the battlefield is of secondary importance. See?
FIRST: political factors. Put the attention there. That is the centre. That is the essence. That is the focus.
IT influences the battlefield, macro and micro.
Not: FIRST: battlefield... IT influences political factors.
Yep, it always actually goes both way.
But the main is 'off battlefield'.
Without a doubt. I'm sure you know that.
The thing is the battlefield is serving its political purpose right now.
We can assume.
Contemplate the possible future. Much more important area for thought. How can the war possibly end without the Allies completely conquering the whole of Ukraine: unconditional surrender?
It cannot. Why? Because any 'rump' would invite USA and NATO in there and there's the very thing Russia does not want. You said that yourself I think, way back.
But there's no chance the Allies can completely whip Ukraine. The closer it came to it the more far out desperate measures would be taken to keep a 'rump' alive.
So there's the real place for discussion and analysis for there's where the war really is: what outcome?
Avdeevka I don't see as pointless either.
It is merely a remote suburb of Donetsk or a satellite city if you like and ideally it would have been taken a long time ago. We await inside information from those who really know about why it wasn't.
But taking it now relieves for the first time in 9 years the city of Donetsk from indiscriminate shelling. The morale boost is immense.
And the training of troops and the learning of new techniques.
I don't know what the hell is going on. I don't think anyone does. The reporting we get is threadbare paltry stuff. Especially considering it is 2023 and all. Like not just talking about modern tech presumably able to give us straight from the battlefield, no, not that, but all the 'old soldiers' - must be thousands of them now, hundreds with some authority, who 'were there'. In 2022. In early 2023. And now are 'out' for one reason or another. You know? There must be a large repository of knowledge 'back home' now that could be spewing out info about the realities of it all.
But we hear nothing.
So I don't know what's going on but I hear of the Allies needing to make up deficiencies in drones for instance and all sorts of other things - some that you love talking about like corruption in the army of all kinds... and all these things point to the usefulness of 'pauses'.
Blah, blah... I'm just rambling....
What I mean is
1. I don't think things are all that bad at all. I can find a POV where it's all reasonable and good.
2. The 'real' war is not on the battlefield and we get NO info about it.
3. Following on from (2) is the fascinating question of what possible acceptable future could there possibly be?
Last sentence: '...this not-war has a logic of its own..' YES. And that's the interest. Not a throwaway line.. 'I've given up on it because it has logic of its own that none of us can fathom'. No. It's a truth. Of course. It has a logic of its own.
And the interest is: what is that logic?
the logic is that this war is an unmitigated disaster for the slavs. possibly the death knell of our race.
go ahead and spin hundreds of thousands of dead and a century of hatred going forward between a once-united people if you can.
The not war served many purposes. It distracted the masses from the crimes of covid and in my opinion that was one of the main goals. The question has to be asked "who benefits" well certainly not us. It's not just the riping out the Slavs it's the whole of white humanity and I think you know that Rurik. I think the truth lies somewhere in between. Rurik is right about the 2 million man army, but that is how you fight a war and not a NOT war.
all races are facing a death knell, that's just the way it goes. 'spin' to what, to where? to where it is a good thing? I wouldn't try to do that.
but it being such a bad thing then all effort and all pontificating should be directed towards the people themselves and trying to get them to save themselves wouldn't you think?
i've never seen any effort from anyone in that direction.
i'll do some myself in order to illustrate what I mean - there may be some of people in question reading:
'Stop fighting your brothers. Can you not see you are puppets of the evil manipulators and the American war profiteers is all? '
What profit could a Kiev Ukrainian expect to get from the conquest of Donbas that is worth giving his life for?
That should be at the heart of the Russian proganda machine broadcast to Ukraine. We are your brother's not the US!
I rather think it is. But the Russian propaganda machine is nothing remotely like the Western one. It's tiny in its quantity and reach.
What disappoints me is the lack of any effort on the part of the 'alt media'.
That is us, you and me, all of these Youtube vids and Substack authors and so on - all the places that attempt to tell the truth and show the truth but mainly, well, entirely:
. Fail to constantly impress that it IS a war between brothers - a civil war between Ukrainians
and
. the solution is for Ukrainians to join together in refusing to fight each other and throw the Americans etc. out.
There's those that quibble that now DPR and LPR have federated with Russia they now are Russian. That's a bs quibble that helps no one. We know the people are the same people on the same land and we know that Kiev and USA etc. still insist they ARE 'Ukrainian'.
Doesn't matter what anyone calls them. There were 35 million Ukrainians occupying land and owning houses and properties etc and splitting them apart and calling one part 'this' and the other part 'that' doesn' t change the fact that those same people are still occupying that same land and owning them same houses and businesses, etc.. You know?
Well I try to explain this to naive people who have no idea where Ukraine is on a map and trust what they see on the news and then ofc you get accused of being pro Russian. The CIA has been in Ukraine pre fall of the USSR stoking the flames. The Ukrainians have swallowed so much though as well. Imagine when Ireland became free of the British if they had stopped the teaching of English in schools. That's exactly what the US has done with Ukraine with Russian and replace it with quite a dead language and got the Ukrainians to reject the idea of Kiev and Rus and their Slavic heritage. Maybe they're doomed to fail due to corruption that's why Putin never wanted them back in '14? They're just not the brightest of Slavs? The same could be said of the Irish actually their civil war and blood letting some argue achieved what the English were about to offer up and the civil war cost more Irish lives than that of British occupation. Not sure if that last point but Neil Jordan said as much in an interview on his film Michael Collins.
To come back to our point do you mean instead of engaging with the everyman I should of laboured the civil war arguement to our community more? We pretty divided ourselves Would ZAnon elements really be able to digest this level of thought? Surely our lot like you and I know this so who specifically have we gotta convince? And what would the aim and results of this be? Sorry to be a party pooper as devils advocate but I do at least hear you!
Hi, and thanks for all that. Makes a lot of sense to me.
The line I am pushing is a simple basic one:
'This is not a war of Russian aggression against Ukraine'.
That's all.
Because I think that is the basic idea they (the masses, all the different aspects of them) are willing to fund or happy to go alone with.
AND I think it is the doctrine that the Kiev Ukrainians have had rammed down their throats and pushed into their heads.
That simple phrase is hopefully the lever to open a chink in their heads to let some light in.
My riposte to 'You are a Russia lover' is either of two:
'Nope, I'm a people lover' or 'Nope, I'm a Ukrainian lover'.
The latter one probably the best when talking to weeping hearts about Ukraine.
Because they generally are weeping about Kiev Ukraine aren't they? And they're astounded when I claim to be loving Ukrainians more than they are.
But it is easy, of course, for me to point out that I want ALL Ukrainians alive. That I want their 500,000 dead alive whereas they and their govt is happy they're dead 'in the cause' and are pushing for more to die, 'in the cause'.
And all like that is the direction I try to go....
Oh.. 'who have we to convince?' Well the ordinary shmuck in the street. I want it to be common knowledge. I want it to appear on every cell phone, you know?
They - the evil 'THEY' - won an immense propaganda coup and they're still winning it. Every cellphone in the land is bearing news and videos about the 'war between Ukraine and Russia'
See?
I want that corrected.
The ordinary folks are quite capable of picking up on the truth and passing it swiftly around, all across the internet to every other 'shmuck' in the (I am a shmuck myself, of course). and I'm waiting and hoping for that to happen.
Maybe it has to be put in the local parlance, so to speak. Like a local analogy.
So try to think of one.
You need a background of a people in a nation with two heritages, or a mixed heritage.
Maybe like Latinos in Californial.
So it's like as though the Californian govt made Spanish illegal in California and started imposing all kinds of ethnic penalties and prohibitions on southern californian counties with the highest Latino population.
And in the finish they even started shelling them and invaded them and in 2022 were on the edge of a second, full scale invasion.
And after a few years of asking, since the 2014 invasion, eventually in 2022 Mexico stepped in to help them.
And when she stepped in those counties already were partially invaded and even to this day they still are. Those counties still have not got their land back.
And now they claim to be part of Mexico but California won't recognise that.
And here's the point of the analogy:
Everyone is calling it a Mexico v California war.
They are all saying Mexico is invading but the invasion to this day is still California govt. into those southern counties.
And now California has lost 500,000 dead in this attempt to subjugate the southern counties.
And now California makes no bones about it: it intends to wipe out every Spanish speaking Californian and every trace of Spanish or Spanish influence of any kind. And they intend to even attack and conquer Mexico if they get half a chance.
But California is broke so it has to borrow from the Federal govt., the USA. And the Fed Govt is as happy as Larry because it is making millions, billions of dollars.
And that's where we are at today. And the Californians are dying like flies and if they lived and if they conquered all they would get would be southern counties littered with corpses, the undying hatred of Mexico, a short orgy of violence and torture and killing and the demobilisation back into civvy street where no doubt unemployment awaits and without doubt future life with a govt practiced in ethnic cleansing an genocide.
Find the villain in all that.
Easier to find the fools: the Californians who went along with the mantra: let's drive out the Latinos.
Maybe 'topical' or 'local' analogies like that might help. Put it to them like that. "In this scenario who would you support: US govt. , California govt., southern counties, Mexico? and what do you think is the answer to that mess?
:)
I am lost for words.....WTF!
Luka predicts negotiations but is not quite so pessimistic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQrttFs57iM
I think this is a more easypill to swallow in the way it's put https://youtu.be/5DNGuJUwzfw?si=iCzbP8x8FVWKyOJ_ and an honest take on it all right now as in the world. Neil is also "friends" (appeared on a podcast) with James Corbet and I doubt he'll be on GB news given the mainstream direction they're going.
The average age of the Ukrainian soldier is 41 so that puts a tiny whole in Ruriks arguement but I wouldn't be surprised if it was similar for the Russian's. And there is some strategic advantage to taking Avdiivka as someone else pointed out to stop the shelling but yes the way they're going about it is all wrong! And that hints at of lack of man power. A 2 million man army would of been the answer if this was a war and simultaneous battle fronts from all angles including Belarus and Transnistria.
But remember this is a NOT war and designed to distract and confuse the masses until the next thing. The goal was never for either side to win all out. We're missing the big picture if we thought that was ever possible. A few people have made a heck of a lot of money though.
On a side note Rurik spot on with Iran! They love the West a fly a 747 full of money to the UK to bank with them too.