Yet More Bad News From the Donbass

Novorussia is a basket case.

Look, it’s not just me saying it. Lots of people who are pro-Russia are coming out and saying it. Let’s take a look together.

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The Novorussians decided to repost an analysis by “Murz” a professional pessimist on Telegram with a large following. This is kind of a big deal.

And no, Murz is not a Strelkovite, nor part of an anti-Kremlin conspiracy of “6th Columnists”. In fact, these patriot-traitors all dislike each other and there’s a huge tangled web of ideological disagreements within the Kremlin-critical camp.

Murz, from what I can tell, is a Stalinist, Strelkov a Tsarist, Prigozhin an Ancap.

Regardless of the details, this is only possible because Russia does not have as strict of a censorship regime as the West and because the LDNR people seem genuinely fed up with Moscow. That is why alternative viewpoints can still peek through the smokescreen of bullshit promoted by the Russian state media.

The piece above is extremely detailed and very long. But, the key points are that, again, the local authorities coordinating relief work actually republished this extremely critical piece of the war effort, and that the piece concludes that the war is all but lost for Russia unless something drastic changes.

If the expected Ukrainian spring offensive, using both fresh reserves and new types of weapons with new capabilities, ends only with our retreats and mumbling about “regroupings”, then “February-1917” with the subsequent collapse of the state will become inevitable. And, even if after “February” “new Bolsheviks” with a “new October” appear from somewhere, the results of the “troubles” that will be summed up a few years later, even in the most optimistic outcome, do not bode well.

The first thing that can help in overcoming the upcoming problems is an understanding of the seriousness and complexity of the situation, which for some reason, listening to those who see these problems with their own eyes, take it for alarmism.

The situation will be VERY DIFFICULT, CRITICAL. Rather, it is already complex and critical, it's just not yet obvious to the majority. Since the top military leadership has done everything possible to drive itself into a dead end and deprive itself “at the top” of any opportunities and resources to prepare for repelling an enemy offensive, it will be necessary to prepare for it as carefully as possible at the middle and grassroots levels. Loss and defeat for the people will mean death or captivity. This should be a motivating factor.

Murz also uses examples of recent military actions and compares them to past actions and concludes that Russia can no longer even engage in large-scale combined arms maneuver warfare and is reduced to WWI style warfare with heavy reliance on artillery.

This is because of loss of equipment, officers, and shoddy communication and reconnaissance.

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Russell "Donbass Cowboy" Bentley used to be a 5D Judo-Chess champion. On account of his age demographic, it was easy to see why such programming would work on him. However, as the war dragged on, his views began to change. He has since adopted a similar “doomer” position to my own and the other pessimists.

I can only assume that the stupidity of Moscow’s handling of this war is far easier to deny the further away one is from the conflict. Seeing as Bentley is right there in the Donbass, it would seem that his tolerance for bullshit simply ran out.

From Bentley’s blog:

Everybody in the world is talking about Bakmut these days, and the AFU/NATO Spring Offensive that is expected before the end of April, less than a month away. The Wagner Musicians are having a hard fight in Artemovsk/Bakmut, but do continue to advance. The largest concentration of UAF/NATO troops on the Donbass Front today is definitely there. Or at least in that vicinity. Pregozhin reports a ukrop troop concentration of 80,000 soldiers in the area.

So far so good, he mentions the obvious looming Ukrainian offensive. As for 80k? Well, that’s far worse than what I was predicting which was 30-40k. The number he cites is a monstrous concentration of forces. We had better hope that this isn’t true.

Other reports from Bakmut mention "several hundred tanks and IFV's" in Bakmut, which is a formidable task force, but nowhere near 80,000. And, in fact, 80,000 troops is far more than would be required for a total rout of the Wagner and RF Army forces around Bakmut. The nazis have concentrated some of their most savage fighters, not in the city itself, but in the vicinity, including AZOV, the "Free Russians", AIDAR, 1st Border Detachment, and 241st Territorial Defense Brigade, all of which are genuine hardcore nazis, and among the best equipped in the ukrop army. There are also an unknown but militarily significant number of highly trained and motivated foreign "mercenaries" from NATO countries in the area. The estimates vary widely, but all agree the number is in the thousands.

Azov used to number less than a thousand fighters back in the pre-denazification days. Now they are part of the regular Ukrainian army and have more members than ever. And yet, people tell me that Moscow has almost denazified Ukraine. Cognitive dissonance doesn’t even begin to describe the phenomenon that we are dealing with here, folks.

Currently, and as usual, the main determining factor in whether Wagner will be able to surround, take, and hold the city (or even hold their current positions) will again be the amount of fire and material support they get (or don't get) from RF Army Command, which has so far proven itself to be rather dubious at best. If the AFU/NATO make a concentrated counter-attack on Bakmut, a failure to have sufficiently reinforced and re-supplied the Russian and Republican troops will be a virtual death sentence for the Wagner "Musicians", among the greatest Heroes of this war. There also remains a risk, and serious indications, of counter-attacks in the Zaporozhia and Ugledar areas, but I think these will probably be feigned, and not occur unless a prior breakthrough by the ukrops develops elsewhere first. And by "elsewhere", I do not mean Bakmut, I mean the major cities along the Donbass Front - Gorlovka and Donetsk/Makeevka.

Interesting thesis.

He says that the main thrust of the attack will be Bakhmut and that actually the expected attack on the south will be a feint.

And honestly, who knows?

On the one hand, clearly Zelensky and his handlers seem to be particularly interested in eliminating Wagner and not losing a PR victory by surrendering Bakhmut. On the other hand, the south is clearly the more strategically valuable objective with a greater chance of success.

Sadly, I have already made my prediction months ago and am now locked in.

The original attack plan, scheduled for the first week of March, 2022, for a decisive Ukrainian victory over the DPR/LPR/Crimea was to begin with a concentrated assault on the major cities of the Republics - Lugansk, Gorlovka and Donetsk/Makeevka. That plan has been postponed by the SMO, but it has not been abandoned or forgotten.

Here I disagree. There is no proof for such a plan from the Ukrainian side. Ukraine only began mobilizing two days before Russia launched the SMO and could not have taken Donbass without mobilizing more men first. There are many problems with this thesis, and it is advanced by many in the pro-Russia camp, so Riley and I dissected it in our most recent podcast which is coming out tomorrow. Stay tuned.

And while Russia has significantly reinforced troop strength in the cities, it would not, and does not, preclude the possibility of the UAF/NATO trying it again. The fact is, confirmed by sources from both sides, that in spite of heavy losses, Ukraine currently has a reserve force of 200,000 troops, in theater, and ready for action. The number of Russian troops in the Donbass theater of operations is not known, but what is known is that Russian forces have also suffered heavy casualties over the last year, and it does not appear that the reserve troops raised are actually in the conflict zone, ready for action. The original attack was planned with 150,000 UAF/NATO troops involved. Now, they have 200,000...

Yes, two good points. Russia has taken heavy losses and has gaping holes in its units that need to be replenished and at the same time has a bunch of recruits just painting grass across the border, not even being trained because of acute officer shortages, and that they refuse to commit for some reason or another.

Wars are won by the side that makes the least mistakes. And they are lost by military commanders who make egregious mistakes, and are allowed to continue to do so. The litany of mistakes by the top Russian military decision-makers, the complete disregard for the most basic principles of military science, in both their number and severity, cannot be excused, and can only be explained by a level of astronomic stupidity or something worse, on the part of those responsible. And these mistakes, if indeed that's what they are, predate the SMO by years. To think that the same ones who have wasted an ocean of blood and a mountain of gold only to bring their Motherland to the threshold of disaster, will suddenly unveil some brilliant plan to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat is delusional. They should have been replaced months, if not years, ago, and as long as they maintain decision-making authority over military operations, they are the greatest impediment to the possibility of Russia saving itself from the dire situation it now finds itself in. They must be replaced immediately by competent, serious and combat proven soldiers of the caliber of Khodakovsky, Pregozhin, and Surovikin.

This is really the most important part. Appalling Russian leadership and either incompetence or sabotage from the political elite and the MoD.

Russia must immediately, fully and permanently prevent the movement of troops and weapons from the West to the Donbass Front. The primary method of transport for these troops and weapons is by rail, on railroad bridges across the Dnieper River. There are 40 bridges that cross the Dnieper River in Ukraine, 12 of which are operational railroad bridges. To destroy some or all of these rail bridges (which should have been done in the first few days of the SMO) will severely degrade the ability of UAF/NATO forces to rotate, reinforce and resupply the nazis attacking the Donbass Front. Vladimir Putin was recently asked directly by a Russian journalist about these railroads and bridges. He answered that what could be done, had been done, and that the reason the bridges still stood was because it was not possible to destroy them. I believe this was the first time I have ever heard him lie.

Those damn bridges. Again.

Delusional 5Ders think that this is because Russia is going to be crossing those bridges soon. Nah. They were left untouched so that exports could continue to flow through to the Satanic West and oligarchs’ losses minimized.

Anyways, I skipped large parts of the post which focused on his predictions on where Ukraine would attack, but you can go and check them out yourselves.

Much credit to the cowboy for this thought-provoking analysis, I’d love to talk with him someday.

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A disturbing video has emerged of Russian soldiers who got thrown into a DNR regiment. In it, they claim that their DNR commanders take bribes from Russian mobiks to not be thrown into human wave assaults on fortified Ukrainian positions.

Dmitri @wartranslated

Russian soldiers from the "Storm" unit, consisting of both convicts (and likely some mobilised), formed by Russian MoD, published a video revealing they were purposefully sent into slaughter during the assault of Vodyane while blocking units prevented their retreat. The unit… https://t.co/XhBZM6GvgX

This video, confirmed by literally every doomer blogger on Telegram as being authentic, is even worse than what I could have imagined. It appears that the DNR commanders see the Russian conscripts as cannon fodder. I suppose this is proof of just how corrupt Donbass is, or, it is proof of the LDNR people not wanting to continue sending their own conscripts to fight, or, it is proof of how fed up they are with Moscow. Probably a combination of all of the above factors.

You will find that the complaints coming from the soldiers and the pessimist analysts are always the same.

• Bad or absent commanders

• Bad equipment

• Bad comms

• Heavy losses

Dmitri @wartranslated

“Local officers of the “DPR” abandoned their positions, only the mobilised Russians remained” the mobilised from the 504th tank regiment recorded another appeal with complaints about the “DPR” command. They previously published an appeal in mid-February.

Another interesting factor is just how mercenary this war is.

A soldier from my Russian chat said that the reason that artillery won’t open fire on coordinates given to them by just anyone is because they make cash bonuses when they actually hit their targets. So, if the infantry unit sending in coordinates doesn’t have a good resume of getting the right coordinates, or they don’t think that they can nail the shot, they don’t shoot. Also, because they’re competing for cash, they don’t share information with other artillery crews.

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This is a very strange war.

You get the impression that Russia’s elites were trying to figure out a way to run this war and they transplanted their internal management style to the military, with the bizarre results that we see now.

Here are what some down on their luck minor oligarchs think:

Dmitri @wartranslated

Making rounds in the Russian and Ukrainian internet today is an alleged leaked recording of a phone call between a notable Russian music producer Iosif Prigozhin (not Wagner's Prigozhin) and Farkhad Akhmedov, an Azerbaijani businessman and a former politician in Russia. In this… https://t.co/u2x1uMfP2m

The leaked telephone call is really funny.

These two rich men, who are friends with other rich men in Russia, basically make the same conclusions as this blog.

• Everyone knows that Shoigu is a thief and an incompetent minister, but Putin never fires his buddies

• The Kremlin elite lives in fantasy land, Putin isn’t even given accurate information by his handlers

• Russia is selling raw resources for pennies to fund this war effort

• The war is going very badly for Russia

• Creating all these private feudal armies is a bad idea because the war will then expand into Russia proper between Chechens, Wagnerites, spooks and so on

It’s a really funny phone call. These old-timers use such colorful language and metaphors. It’s something that we’ve lost as internet slang has risen up to replace it.

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So there you have it.

That’s four perspectives. Count ‘em:

1. The Novorussians and Murz

2. Donbass Cowboy

3. Two groups of soldiers

4. Two businessmen

And mine, of course. I write about these things too, sometimes.