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Jun 11, 2023Liked by Rurik Skywalker

The attack is floundering.....be careful what you say. This is just the first early attempts or maybe probes of the Russian defenses and is no way predictive of an outcome. This is just the start of the counter offensive which will go on for weeks or many weeks or more. The big celebration of a couple of Leopard tanks and Bradley vehicles running over some mines is no big deal. So sit down and get ready for the real action when it gets going. And then go back and reread what you wrote.

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let a man farm some likes and new subs. the positive stuff sells.

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Granted, and I hope you get more. You are a reasonable alternative to Simplicious which is everything Russia good, everything Ukraine bad.

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The position of this blog is: everything Russia is bad, everything Ukraine is worse and America to blame for it all.

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Removed (Banned)Jun 11, 2023
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I don't read anyone else who writes in English. Unless someone else sends me one of their articles and asks me to that is.

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Removed (Banned)Jun 12, 2023
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I dont read them unless my friends toss me an article to ROFL over because i simply read primary sources on telegram in Russian.

Its not self-hobbling. You guys are the ones who are hobbled because you dont know russian or the internal political scene in russia. i try to help with that.

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I'm for Ukraine so I'm not reading it as the bright side though it could be true but way too early to tell.

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Nah Ukraine has all of NATOs satellite recon assets at their fingertips. The idea that they are "probing" with Leopards is a bit absurd when they have the best recon network in the world. They are actually trying to break Russias lines and so far unsuccessfully.

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Recon sats are good but the actual resistance can only be known gun barrel to gun barrel. And of course you probe with the gear that you will use in the assault.

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LOL... by the time the 47th gets "gun barrel to gun barrel" they will be the 47th platoon.

Read some Ukie channels; the Leopards are getting unalived before they get within the range of the tank's main gun.

The UkAF have lost about half of all the Leopards that have been officially handed over; and they've lost "tank killer" Bradleys by (almost) the score. Hard to kill a tank when the Bradley never gets to lay eyes on them.

When the lead mine-clearing machinery gets Crocodiled and a few clever dummies swerve and get unalived... everyone goes into 'R' to regroup. This happens before anyone ever sees a Russian position.

Then they run over newly-seeded AT and AP thanks to "Agriculture".

By the time they've got a new 'sweeper, the minefield has been re-sown.

I imagine that UK Chied 'Defence' Fuckwit Ben Wallace has a sphincter that is tightening up in anticipation of any Challengers getting deployed. DU rods won't help if the tank gets roasted before its gunner sees the LoC.

Honestly: anybody who opened their idiot yaps with "Russians are retarded drunken apes - LOOKIT THEIR TANKS ALL IN A COLUMN HERR DERR" at Ugledar... well, those folks should shut up about now.

The after-match commentary on Ugledar showed categorically who were ZERO-D theorists - because they showed that they didn't understand WHY armour can't do a 20-abreast "cavalry charge" like the US was able to do in Iraq.

Finally, a question to be fielded by any 0-D theorist: why would the Russians bother going on the offensive when their boys are warm, dry, well-fed and ALIVE... and the Ukies are behaving like a 'herd' in some retarded episode of The Walking Dead?

An observation on 0-D vs 5-D theorists: 5D tries to examine the operational nuances; the terrain; the tactics and logistics; the Game Theory... 0D claims that it's 100% "palace intrigue" in the high command of the RF. (Personally, I'm all about that 4D theory).

Let's see some ABRAMS in-theatre.

The US MIC can still pretend it has ONE product to foist on gullible Third-Worlders... given that FWMP, Patriot, HIMARS, Javelin and Stinger have been shown to be pretty shit.

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Fog of war...

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If the AFU wants to maintain its offensive, they get to choose in which theater they throw their army away. Break through or not, their forces will be spend in 4 weeks time, after which everything gets bogged down anyway. If they made an incursion, their flanks will be ripped apart by Russia, and they will perish. Remember: No air cover.

All Russia has to do is not negotiate, and they will emerge the winner. Even if a leopard makes it all the way to melitipol or mariupol

Its sad really, slav against slav, and the outcome is guaranteed: A lot of wasted lives and deeper in debt.

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ancient slav saying: when two brothers fight, a long-nosed stranger inherits their father's estate.

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"Its sad really, slav against slav"

The whole war is a tragedy, but you have to assign some responsibility to the Ukrainians, who go along with the war and refuse to give the Russian speakers any shred of cultural autonomy. Not to mention refusing to come to a strategic accord with Russia concerning neutrality. Corruption aside, it's obvious a lot of Ukrainians fully support Ukraine's insistence on total victory.

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=== a couple of Leopard tanks and Bradley vehicles

LOL "a couple" is two - even in the modern world of GloboShlomo.

Ukraine got given MAYBE 30 Leopards (it's hard to keep up with all the promises by Western political leeches, and harder to verify that those promises are kept).

They're down more than a dozen in THREE DAYS on ONE LINE and they DIDN'T GET TO THE LoC.

Some of those will be repairable, for sure... now they just have to go get 'em somehow.

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I simply believe the day of the massed attack and tanks is finished. Anything that moves on the ground can be targeted and got at any time. Both sides know where everything is. Computer algorithms can watch screens and detect movement , forward targeting into, steer drones to investigate, steer drones to attack.

Right now no one can get total dominance in that field any more than they can get total dominance of the air for aircraft.

While you don't have total dominance the other side can still potentially see, target and destroy anything you do.

If you do successfully attack you must immediately dig in and hide and you can't be supplied. You can't do troop rotations. You can't bring in more heavy equipment/tanks. Anything moving on a road especially a well known, well travelled route is on a suicide mission. Or the other side simply isn't trying.

So on the basis of that vast simplification I don't think Kiev can 'win' this ploy.

But, of course, as Rolo says ( I think ) there's something very strange on the Allied side and we can't be sure the basic principles will hold good.

But if everyone 'plays by the book' those facts of today's warfare must dictate what happens.

Over the ground and even air warfare have gone the way of warships.

It is electronic measures and counter measures and 'robots' - drones - that are fighting the war now.

Fighting the war on the battlefield I mean.

Which is theatre. The 21C colosseum, 'circuses' for the masses.

The real war - well I don't know where it is or what it is about or who's fighting it.

I thought I knew. Rolo punched holes in that belief. :)

But I'm betting Kiev cannot make it through the Allied armies to the coast without blatant obvious sabotage and malpractice on the part of the Allies.

Where, I wonder, a this point, is the 'second front' attack by the Allies that will draw the strength of Kiev, split their attention, manpower, materiel, command cohesion?

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the days of massed attacks and tanks without air support or anti-air were over since wwii.

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Removed (Banned)Jun 11, 2023
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where you see antichrist I see conscripted Slav peasants with second-rate NATO weapons on loan.

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I see exploited Slav peasants forced into human trafficking and organ harvesting. If that's not antichrist, it ain't exactly prochrist either.

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Removed (Banned)Jun 12, 2023
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is this antichrist in the room with us now?

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Instant minefields shot from trucks are another innovation to enmire ground forces, and to simplify surveillance an artillery action. all ground action sloooows down.

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Yep, I've seen a couple of videos of them and what might be the 'reverse' of them, I think - where they shoot a great long cable of explosive material which blows a clear path? Unless I got the wrong idea. Very dramatic vid of some Allied vehicle shooting something way over the treetops with two long 'ropes' dangling behind it - eventually a great big explosion in the far distance. If I understood it right that had somehow cleared a path...

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Removed (Banned)Jun 11, 2023
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what other ways to fight on ground wars? to kill people?

I think you don't need me to start enumerating them.

And beyond the 'on ground', the battlefield itself, there is always the reality of the politics that the wars are the extension of. The 'politics by other means' I think is the quote isn't it?

The wars could be fought entirely by political means.

They often are.

Sanctions are exactly that.

The USA has been slowly and deliberately and callously strangling Cuba to death for decades and plans to keep on doing it.

For instance.

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Removed (Banned)Jun 12, 2023
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You're a bit of a stirrer, aren't you? Did I say anything about cutting any land bridges? No. But you in your archly supercilious way lay on me the task of enumerating ways to do it. By what right?

By the right of your arrogance, I suppose.

The arrogance of the archly supercilious I suppose.

I said, to remind you:

"....what other ways to fight on ground wars? to kill people?

I think you don't need me to start enumerating them..."

But apparently you do.

Well I don't think you should. You've got a clever brain haven't you? I feel sure you'd answer in the affirmative. Then use it. How would you fight a ground war if you didn't have any tanks?

Like in the mountain of Afghanistan?

Or the jungles of Vietnam?

They are currently trying to fight one without tanks in the Donbas aren't they? All the special forces homicidal maniacs of the slimy west itching to make up special groups of infiltrators that will bring about the downfall of the enemy. By sneaking in and doing sabotage and assassination.

Because they recognise the essential demise of tank warfare in a drone age.

They are trying to find ways.

They are reading the books of times/places where armour was absent or ineffective. They getting insurgent 'how to do' manuals.

They may revert to gas.

The number of labs found indicates they may turn to biological.

They are trying infiltration, sowing fear and doubt, confusion. A very sound looking principle which has the merit of marrying with the drone age to some extent. For the drones and the electronic eavesdropping and false messaging etc. can make all kinds of things happen. Whole units go off in the wrong direction. Units firing on each other. Whole command centres suddenly bombed out of existence due to drones/electronic warfare/high precision guided weapons.

But the greatest weapon of all comes from on high where the battle is really being fought: up there with the money and the power.

They quietly pull some levers up there and issue some instructions and magically avenues open up for the enemy and it's a walk through.

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Jun 11, 2023Liked by Rurik Skywalker

I took out a paid membership to Slavland Chronicles because it is the only source I know that in any way seems to present a more balanced view of the course of the war.

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A technique I find useful is to read accounts from the most ardent on both sides. It is easy to weed out the loons and concentrate on the serous commentators.

You can be sure each side will seize on the most supportive stories.

From there one can cogitate and discern who, on balance, is the most accurate and conscientious with the the facts as it all progresses.

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Jun 11, 2023·edited Jun 11, 2023Liked by Rurik Skywalker

I said a few posts back that my only shred of hope was that political pressure on Zelensky combined with leadership changes for the worst on Ukraines part would equal Ukraine fighting more like Russia, that is badly on the offensive and it looks like that might be happening. Its still too early to call but the signs are there.

I don't begrudge any Z bros their triumphalism, this is genuinely glorious optics provided by the Russian Army and its a psychological turning point of sorts. Leopards and Bradleys burning to absolutely no gain on Kievs end proves to everyone that Russian arms really are the equal of the best NATO has to offer. Javelins being over rated is one thing but burning Leopards is another. Im genuinely a bit taken aback as I was assuming the worst in regards to the counter offensive but normal Russian troops who dont have a bunch of knives in their back are pretty damn good. Theres no denying it now.

Where has this Russian army been the last 14 months? Did the ammonia pipeline getting blown up trigger some Oligarchs to the point where they told MoD to fight for real a little bit? Im not discounting that Ukraine is so far just fighting stupidly but Im not seeing any obvious signs of sabotage from MoD and thats the most decisive aspect of whats going on imo.

But yeah being optimistic about Russia holding the line is one thing but talking about a Russian "counter offensive" is eye rolling cringe. Its like saying we will actually land on the moon for real soon. The absolute best case scenario is Russia demonstrates they can hold the present line and by doing so coax a cease fire with conditions the Kremlin deems non ruinous. That might even be the Kremlins plan which might explain the lack of the usual MoD sabotage so far.

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I also don't begrudge the Russians for their stiff resistance, but the couple of Bradleys and Leopards that you see photos of everywhere never even made it to action before getting caught in a minefield. And there is no way to judge whether these actions are stupid or just the typically first probes or attacks in an offensive.

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WOW! That um fighting talk!

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1667872164823941123

PRIGOZHIN IS “COMMITTING MUTINY”

❗️Prigozhin stated that PMC Wagner would not be subordinate to the 🇷🇺 Ministry of Defense, saying,

“Those orders and decrees that Shoigu makes, they apply to employees of the 🇷🇺 Ministry of Defense and military personnel.

PMC Wagner will not sign any contracts with Shoigu. PMC Wagner is organically built into the overall system, PMC Wagner coordinates its actions with the generals on the right, left, with unit commanders. What can happen after this order - we will not be given weapons and ammunition - we will figure it out, as they say, when the thunder strikes, they will come running and bring everything.”

- Prigozhin of PMC Wagner

❗️Girkin (Strelkov), a key 🇷🇺 figure in the 2014 invasion, called Prigozhin's refusal to submit to Shoigu as ‘military mutiny.’

❗️Prigozhin’s chicken video is likely, based on his early statements, referring to the 🇷🇺 military leadership as being cowards and ‘roosters’ (it is 🇷🇺 prison slang for submissive homosexual).

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i hate .webp file format

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It's getting wild:

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1667944581827272704

Igor Sushko

@igorsushko

Persistent discussions inside Wagner that Russia's General Staff intends to eliminate Prigozhin and blame it on internal strife within Wagner PMC. They think it'd require a big operation by the Russian special forces in order to succeed. However, Wagner believe eliminating Prigozhin and his top commanders will prove difficult because Dmitry Utkin, Prigozhin's top deputy, has "stronger ties with Russian special forces than the General Staff."

5:19 AM · Jun 12, 2023

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This account: (((Tendar))) @Tendar appears fairly objective to me. They are very difficult to find.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1668000262974328832

Ukrainian forces liberated Makarivka.

Overall within 36h more than 100 km² have been liberated by the Ukrainian army.

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Tendar is not good faith. The ((())) echo should be a big red flag.

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https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667938082375475202

This account is not so glowing:

Russian lines continue to fall apart. The town Storozheve as well as Levadne have been liberated. Ukrainian forces already hammering Russian troops in Makarivka and Urozhaine.

With this situation unfolding it is likely that there is no serious Russian presence at Novodarivka and Rivnopil, unless they want to be encircled.

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If the losses of the AFU show one thing (and do it well!) is that any counter-counter-offensive by the Russian forces will probably be very very costly. So far the Russian offensive has been slow grinding. Which works because the AFU is willing to throw their forces at them. But going on a active offense yourself... well that is quite another matter.

Since Medvedev said it, I presume they will. But its going to be a nail-biter.

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deletedJun 11, 2023Liked by Rurik Skywalker
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With all due respect, I doubt Zionists want a second homeland. They're concerned with getting Jews to migrate to Israel, to match any increase in the Arab population.

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