12 Comments

Right on cue I get this Jamestown Foundation article in my inbox (did Putin really say that about the Mongolian yoke?)

Sino-Russian Partnership in the Arctic and the Far East Reflect Joint Security Interests (Part Two)

Sergey Sukhankin

Executive Summary:

Russia and China are conducting joint military exercises in the Far East and Arctic as China’s involvement in the region grows and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization expands into the Arctic.

Moscow is increasingly aligning with Beijing to bolster its position in the Arctic, leveraging its advanced icebreaking fleet and cooperation with China to promote Arctic security cooperation.

China’s Arctic ambitions could shift the partnership’s power dynamics as Russia grapples with economic and demographic challenges, the strain of the war in Ukraine, and growing Western Arctic policies.

(Part One)

In September, Russia conducted a series of naval military exercises under the code name Ocean-2024 that took place in the Pacific and the Arctic oceans, as well as in the basins of the Mediterranean, the Caspian, and the Baltic seas (see EDM, November 14). Based on their geographic scope and the amount of military equipment involved, Russian President Vladimir Putin called these exercises “the largest [exercises] in the past thirty years” (RBC, October 2). Beyond these factors, international attention was drawn to the fact that the drills included the North-Joint 2024, the Sino-Russian joint naval exercises in the skies and around the Sea of Japan as well as the Sea of Okhotsk (RBC, September 21). Joint Russia-China drills in the Far East could be viewed through China’s growing involvement in the Arctic region and the expansion of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Russia’s recent military exercises and intensified cooperation with China underscore its strategic pivot toward securing its interests in the Arctic amid growing competition with Western powers.

Analysis of Russian media and information outlets on the topic provides a mixed outlook. On the one hand, experts (and outward propagandists serving the informational needs of the Kremlin) attempt to present a rosy picture with Russia holding clear superiority over the United States and its Western alliance. Among others, Russian sources claim that given the “weakness of the Western coalition in the Arctic,” Washington’s primary goal in bringing Sweden and Finland into NATO was to harness the resources of these two countries—their geography and technological capabilities, especially in shipbuilding—and make Russia overstretch its resources. As argued by Russian experts, however, this would still not be enough to reduce Russia’s military potential in the Arctic. In addition to other unique types of military equipment and hardware that are unavailable to Russia’s Western adversaries, Russia holds a competitive edge in the region with its icebreaker fleet, whose potential will grow exponentially by 2026 when Msocow is expected to introduce new types of icebreakers. This includes the Nikolay Zubov Project 23550 armed icebreaking patrol ship. This prompts Russian experts to claim that Russia is ready for a potential battle over the Arctic (RIA Novosti, July 30).

Excessive rhetorical optimism is mixed with growing concerns over the West waking up to the reality of the Arctic and its determination to strengthen its eroded defense and military potential in the region. For instance, Katerina Labetskaya from the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Science has stated that the “Arctic has long remained a front of the global hybrid warfare waged by the collective West—under the leadership of the United States—against Russia and friendly nations who have interests in this region.” Labetskayae implied that it would make sense for countries and blocs who share values and interests in the Arctic, referring to Russia, China, and BRICS, to unite their forces in the high north to jointly confront the so-called “collective West” (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, July 23).

Russian political experts are also eying an emerging Canadian initiative to build a “new Arctic coalition” with great unease. The Russian side sees strengthening ties between Canada and the Nordic countries as an attempt to “isolate Russia, compete with China in the high north, and ultimately to replace the Arctic Council,” an organization that has served Russia’s strategic interests in dividing the West under the pretext of wellbeing and development of the Arctic region. The Russian side highlights the “security dimension” of the emerging Canadian-Northern European partnership (RG.ru, October 3). Growing concerns among Russian experts, policymakers, and diplomatic-political circles were evident in the recent statement from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who accused NATO of “casting their eyes on the Arctic region” by holding various exercises that could result in potential crises in the Arctic. He nevertheless firmly stated that Russia is fully prepared to stand up for its interests on military, political, and military-technological levels. Lavrov connected NATO’s growing Arctic ambitions with its desire to “globalize, legitimize, and prove itself as the global policeman” (RG.ru, September 20).

Russia will push for greater security cooperation with China and the Far East as the West continues its expansion into the Arctic. The recent naval drills point to this. Russia, whose demographic, economic, and, to an extent, military capabilities in the macro-region are either inferior to those of China or are likely to erode with the continuation of its war in Ukraine, realizes its weaknesses compared to China. Moscow will try to rely on two pillars while expanding ties with China. The first pillar is Russia’s superiority in its icebreaker potential, an aspect that fascinates the Chinese side (Inosmi.ru, September 1) and is unlikely to match Russia’s capabilities in this area in the near future. Second, Russia will likely use the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a security platform for Arctic cooperation with China to circumvent the current security arrangements governing the Arctic (RIA Novosti Crimea, August 22).

Recently, the mouthpiece of the Kremlin, RIA Novosti information agency, released an article titled “The Arctic will belong to China.” Publishing a piece with such a title in a state-controlled outlet would have likely been inconceivable prior to 2022 (RIA Novosti October 8). The article praises China’s forward-thinking and long-term approach to Arctic affairs and argues that Beijing aims to capitalize on its advantages—the PRC’s economic capabilities and scientific potential. As such, the piece suggests that China is likely to join forces with Russia in the defense and security sector and, at least for now, will opt for joint patrolling missions rather than pursue its own independent path in the Arctic. The article, however, also argues that China will be using this approach not because it has forfeited its Arctic ambitions but because the country is still in the process of “increasing its muscle power.”

While Russian rhetoric emphasizes its strengths, particularly in icebreaking capabilities and Arctic expertise, underlying concerns about Western initiatives and China’s long-term ambitions reveal a more complex reality. The evolving geopolitical landscape in the Arctic highlights the region’s increasing significance as a theater of strategic rivalry, with Russia seeking to leverage partnerships and military readiness to maintain its foothold while contending with internal and external challenges. With Putin’s 2023 remark about the Mongolian yoke (1237–1480 AD) being better than the West’s domination and Russia’s rapidly deepening dependence on China, it becomes ever more likely that Moscow will concede its positions in the Arctic and the Far East in the short to medium term.

Expand full comment

Like Thorsten said, today we have access to everything, there's no reason for intellectual laziness. Perhaps with other changes, the tribal stranglehold on lukewarm academia is but an intermezzo of 100 years

Expand full comment

Dragon Ball z, Naruto, Star Wars. Finally a discussion of Dao I can wrap my head around. Fine conversation, gentleman

Expand full comment

Some of the discussions were very interesting and gave me food for thought.

On the subject of the dialectic between the Mystic & the State: I don't know if there is a real opposition between the two, other than that of scale and quality (individual vs collective), because the term that links them is power. The mystic seeks greater power over himself and what constitutes him, while the state and its representatives wish to extend their normative control in concrete ways, often using religion or some other lever. The key is ‘What is the modus operandi for moving from imagination to manifestation? Dr Pattberg certainly hit the nail on the head when he spoke of Wu Wei as active inaction through the will. First comes thought, then its expression and finally action follows. Expression is the key between the 2 movements, its qualitative tipping point. When expression is a book, enormous power can be wielded by a philosopher king like Plato without even moving a finger.

On the subject of divination: If divination is considered to work, it is necessarily because there is a direct link between the operator and the reality in which he operates. Either because he exerts a degree of influence on it, or because he is able to perceive intuitively the analogical relationship between its fractured parts. In those cases, the operative process is of little importance: what is required is simply an interpretative framework or a system for reducing the universe as a whole to a few simple elements. All that is needed is for the system to speak to the operator and enable him to establish an intimate link with his reality. On this point, I came across an interesting way of practising astrology. The astrology of interrogations is practised on the basis of a snapshot of the horoscope of the moment when a question for which an answer is ardently desired has a strong inner impact on us. It is assumed that the answer to this question lies in the interpretation that we can make of the horoscope of the moment when this question impacted us.

Expand full comment

What do you make of all the pyramids in China that have had trees planted on them?

Expand full comment

Another interesting guest might be Varg Vikernes, with his slogan "Let's Find Out!" He was banned from youtube, but I think he is still on Rumble or Bitchute; and his wife Marie Cachet has her own channel on youtube.

Expand full comment

Love the very German title correction in the first minute.

Expand full comment

The dichotomy between mysticism and moralism is also present in early Christianity, until the bishops took over, first the religion and then the state.

Expand full comment

Wonderful ....

Expand full comment

All excellent, except the question: "Have you heard of Quakers?'

Expand full comment

Great! Finally a new one!!!

Expand full comment
deletedNov 19
Comment deleted
Expand full comment
author

oh yeah? why do you say that?

Expand full comment