Elements of Russian civil society appear to be experiencing a psychological break following the news that Russia would start fighting a serious war against “NATO in Ukraine,” as the MoD has taken to saying.
I live in Moscow and do not see any psychosis.Only office plankton is alarmed. Russians increasingly view liberals as traitors. People hope that after mobilization a real war will begin in Ukraine.
People are hoping. But are they right in their expectations? After all, one can hope, but then expectations will diverge from reality.
The review of the situation does not give firm grounds that today's rulers of Russia, who have made mistakes many times, will not continue to make them further. In addition, there are no facts that measures are being taken to correct errors. In particular, there are no reports that the ostentation and negligence that caused the current situation are being eliminated.
It's a pity, but it looks like Russia will have to go through a severe crisis to renew the ruling stratum.
"bardak" - my new word of the day! - I learn from Google that it's Russian for "mess" - but also: "Bardak is a Tel Avivian street food restaurant ...." - That can't be coincidence, right?
There is another Russian word - "shapkozakidatelstvo". It means boastful and frivolous assurances of the possibility of a quick and easy victory. From the words hat (shapka) and throw (kidat). It arose in the Crimean War in the middle of the XIX century, which ended with the defeat of Russia from the coalition led by Great Britain and France. The Russian Emperor Nicholas I then died, shortly before the end of the war and the conclusion of peace. According to legend, he was very worried about defeats and therefore fell ill. At the same time when the expression "Thin red line" appeared. General Kiryakov received an order from the commander and told him: "Don't worry, Your Excellency. We'll throw hats at the enemy." The task of the ruling class is to control and prevent bardak and shapkozakidatelstvo.
- Partial mobilization for the Russian society at large had the same effect as the start of the SMO back on February 24th for the elites - a wake-up call. The difference is that for elites this was all about financial losses and in many cases the end to the business as usual. For the population it is about hardships of war and the potential loss of life. Both wake-up calls were badly needed by Russian society slowly drowning in blatant consumerism. The outcomes of this sudden waking up are not certain, this can lead to society cleansing itself, or it can lead to destabilization and social collapse. By the end of winter we'll have a much better understanding which way it goes.
- Despite certain excesses, like wrong people being drafted or recruits given rusty AK rifles, mobilization proceeds at a decent pace and taking into account that last event of this nature happened back in 1979, just before the invasion of Afghanistan, the system of Military Commissariats built in Stalin's USSR seems to be able to churn its rusty gears. What we see on the sidelines like an attack on the recruitment officer are in a way expected events as Russia is a divided society, but not 50/50 like in US, but along the lines of 85/15, where 15% are those falsely called "liberals" that are always advocating Russia's inferiority before the great and shining West. They will always protest any government initiative, especially if it relates to a war.
- As recent actions by Chechen leader Kadyrov and Chechen people show North Caucasus republics of Russia are not a liability, but an asset. Close-knit society of Caucasus people shows Russians an example of how to defend their own interests, how to be passionate about it too. Russians need to be a bit more like the people of Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Osetia etc. If they will consider the overall Russian Federation interests to be their interests, as has been the case with Ukraine, they'll be the first to fight for it. Someone presumably from Dagestan (but very likely not from there) announcing a start of a guerilla war doesn't mean anything. Russian FSB is well skilled in capturing and neutralizing people like that if they present a real threat.
Sep 29, 2022·edited Sep 29, 2022Liked by Rurik Skywalker
Rolo, thank you for your blog. You write insightfully and unbiased. You really understand what is happening in Russia, and do not embellish reality either to the right or to the left. You do not adapt the propaganda of the Russian elite for the Western reader (as you wrote about "Faker"). I do not know such authors in Russia, except maybe El Murid and a few other people. Therefore, lately I prefer to read the analysis of events in English. There should be no illusions about Russia. The Russian people are good, but their current rulers are no longer. The main problem is that the elites (the ruling stratum) in Russia are incompetent, unprofessional and generally have a poorly functioning management system. Fraud and show-off are common, which became visible with the beginning of the SMO, and especially during mobilization. Ordinary people in Russia, as of course everywhere else, are engaged in their everyday affairs and make up an opinion about the world on the basis of rare viewing of official news. But the mobilization made them more interested and showed them the difference between propaganda coming from the elites and reality. Deceived expectations lead to the loss of people's trust in the ruling stratum. And this ruling layer can no longer be corrected - only changed. It is clear from the events that the elite in Russia makes one mistake after another and is almost cornered.
The bardak is a feature not a bug in my opinion. Soviet legacy has left Russia in a better position precisely due to this sudden dive into neoliberalism out of socialism, both done in less than ideal ways. Russian consciousness is marred in social problems and attempts to fix them, and a government not competent enough to boil the frog slowly. Contrast it with westerners who have to wait until 30 percent of the population are migrants before a couple people start voting center-right to quench the uneasiness they feel. Human beings in the collective are an organism on to its self and it’s a good sign we’re seeing some activity. It’s like a case of the ignorant being the only ones smart enough to reproduce, but on the scale of a country. The flaws of the stupid end up helping them succeed.
I too, support exile to Siberia. All Americans, French and Germans who do not support the Putin position on the Donbass should be rounded up forthwith, begining with Blinken, Biden, and Nuland. If they survive a year in Siberia, clearly we have been too soft on them and so they should be exiled to Germany for an entire winter. Now that, Bill Gates, is how depopulation is achieved by real men, not by sniveling vaxx jabber wannabes. Meanwhile, Gates, Fauci, Soros, and Schwarb should be sent to join the traitors, but fed only fried cockroaches for the rest of their lives. Gotta say, I am really begining to enjoy this war. Oh, I nearly forgot, send Boris, Angela, Albo, the Canadian whateverheis, and Adern the transhumn horse too.
I imagine that you have already stated what you think is actually happening in Russia. (I would appreciate a link, but don't worry if that's too much to ask.)
I have maybe three different theories available to me, and none of them make much sense.
One is the corporate media narrative that Putin is trying to reestablish the Great Russian Empire and has gone totally mad. I learned years ago to not trust the news about anything important. So that theory gets a flunk without even thinking hard.
Another is a "right wing" conspiracy theory that Russia has goaded the West into a war to wear it out, in preparation for some sort of attack from the rear (say, from China). Though goodness knows the West deserves a smackdown, this does not bode well for all those "innocent" Americans just trying to get along. And beyond that, I have no idea how valid this theory might be.
And a third comes from the New Age community. It is a bit disjointed, but concentrates on the "real" players for control of Earth, which are not the state governments (or their bureaucracies) but various "secret" groups that make all their plays behind the scenes. In this scenario, we have "White Hats" (pro-human freedom) "Black Hats" (anti-human or slavers) and "others." Our own government and corporate world seem enamored with the Black Hats. Trump, Putin, Xi and many others are trying in various ways to support the White Hats. Various Others aren't so sure either of the major groups really have the best interests of humanity in mind. After a while it all starts to sound like CIA fairy tales.
The only problem is that we know that ETs and other more bizarre political players really exist and have been messing around with Earth for a long time. So the more "mainstream" theories seem perilously superficial and simple-minded from this point of view. None of these are very convincing to me. Most people still have no clue what happened when JFK was killed in 1963 of when 9/11 happened in 2001, so who knows if we will ever know the truth about Russia and their Special Military Operation in Ukraine.
I apologize for interfering, since your question is not addressed to me, and also for poor English.
You can consider the fourth version.
The world is so arranged that the leading stratum, the elite, the rulers will certainly form in the communities of people. Even herd animals have leaders. These leaders hire servants for themselves and this structure is called the state by people. The rest of the people are subjects of the rulers, no matter what they say about "democracy".
There are many such complex structures of rulers, their servants and ordinary people on Earth. They are distributed geographically and are called countries. Some rulers are not completely independent, but are themselves vassals of other rulers.
The rulers of the countries interact with each other, allocating resources, and conflicts inevitably arise about this.
Your understanding is good, but I detect another reason why people tend to demand a government, and that is the existence of psychopaths (habitual criminals) on Earth. People require some sort of system for removing such persons from the community without too much disturbing our sense of fairness. Thus, systems of law and governance come about.
These systems, when implemented honestly, tend to work. But they are, of course, under constant attack from criminals. As those attacks continue, the honesty of those governing weakens and finally collapses, and you get what most of us know today as "government."
These, then, tend to act like rival gangs, fighting over resources rather than learning how to make the wisest use of what is already available to them. They tend to treat their people poorly. And this is one genus of war and conscription.
Well...... maybe, like the average Ukrainian should have been, some Russians should have been more concerned about the attempted genocide of the people of the Donbass for the last 8 years and perhaps the Russian government would have taken care of the situation 8 years ago? .... And it would have been a whole lot easier!
Time as come for Eurasia to react as a unique front against nazi USA, EU and Nato. I'm European, but I tell you, the last 3 years of heavy Propaganda and mental warfare held by Nato inside Europe, has turned the great majority of europeans in a mass of idiots sheeps, ready to stay 90 degrees on the their knees to the Neo Nazi commanders.
No hope in Europe old good discernment ! Not anymore, sadly
You are being much too negative. There are liberal crazies everywhere. Why would Russia be an exception. Wait til the referenda are over and the regions are properly united to Russia and then the serious push will come. Internally a few thousand protesters are not much. Autumn rains are coming and General Winter is not far behind.
I wonder about demoralization after a few nuclear detonations in Ukraine which are surely coming before General Winter starts slapping people around and around again. What does NATO have to lose by crossing a few more red lines? They can say them Russkies freaked out and used tactical nuclear weapons as they roll into the Western Ukraine. US is said to have used tactical nuclear weapons in both Iraq and Afghanistan so Ukraine might be next.
I live in Moscow and do not see any psychosis.Only office plankton is alarmed. Russians increasingly view liberals as traitors. People hope that after mobilization a real war will begin in Ukraine.
People are hoping. But are they right in their expectations? After all, one can hope, but then expectations will diverge from reality.
The review of the situation does not give firm grounds that today's rulers of Russia, who have made mistakes many times, will not continue to make them further. In addition, there are no facts that measures are being taken to correct errors. In particular, there are no reports that the ostentation and negligence that caused the current situation are being eliminated.
It's a pity, but it looks like Russia will have to go through a severe crisis to renew the ruling stratum.
"bardak" - my new word of the day! - I learn from Google that it's Russian for "mess" - but also: "Bardak is a Tel Avivian street food restaurant ...." - That can't be coincidence, right?
There is another Russian word - "shapkozakidatelstvo". It means boastful and frivolous assurances of the possibility of a quick and easy victory. From the words hat (shapka) and throw (kidat). It arose in the Crimean War in the middle of the XIX century, which ended with the defeat of Russia from the coalition led by Great Britain and France. The Russian Emperor Nicholas I then died, shortly before the end of the war and the conclusion of peace. According to legend, he was very worried about defeats and therefore fell ill. At the same time when the expression "Thin red line" appeared. General Kiryakov received an order from the commander and told him: "Don't worry, Your Excellency. We'll throw hats at the enemy." The task of the ruling class is to control and prevent bardak and shapkozakidatelstvo.
There's a great "explainer" article here https://www.haaretz.com/2014-02-11/ty-article/.premium/word-of-the-day-bardak/0000017f-df0a-d856-a37f-ffca67d00000 But I get their subscriber Passkontrolle cuz I'm cheapskate trying to read English Haaretz w/o paying
- Partial mobilization for the Russian society at large had the same effect as the start of the SMO back on February 24th for the elites - a wake-up call. The difference is that for elites this was all about financial losses and in many cases the end to the business as usual. For the population it is about hardships of war and the potential loss of life. Both wake-up calls were badly needed by Russian society slowly drowning in blatant consumerism. The outcomes of this sudden waking up are not certain, this can lead to society cleansing itself, or it can lead to destabilization and social collapse. By the end of winter we'll have a much better understanding which way it goes.
- Despite certain excesses, like wrong people being drafted or recruits given rusty AK rifles, mobilization proceeds at a decent pace and taking into account that last event of this nature happened back in 1979, just before the invasion of Afghanistan, the system of Military Commissariats built in Stalin's USSR seems to be able to churn its rusty gears. What we see on the sidelines like an attack on the recruitment officer are in a way expected events as Russia is a divided society, but not 50/50 like in US, but along the lines of 85/15, where 15% are those falsely called "liberals" that are always advocating Russia's inferiority before the great and shining West. They will always protest any government initiative, especially if it relates to a war.
- As recent actions by Chechen leader Kadyrov and Chechen people show North Caucasus republics of Russia are not a liability, but an asset. Close-knit society of Caucasus people shows Russians an example of how to defend their own interests, how to be passionate about it too. Russians need to be a bit more like the people of Dagestan, Chechnya, Ingushetia, Osetia etc. If they will consider the overall Russian Federation interests to be their interests, as has been the case with Ukraine, they'll be the first to fight for it. Someone presumably from Dagestan (but very likely not from there) announcing a start of a guerilla war doesn't mean anything. Russian FSB is well skilled in capturing and neutralizing people like that if they present a real threat.
Rolo, thank you for your blog. You write insightfully and unbiased. You really understand what is happening in Russia, and do not embellish reality either to the right or to the left. You do not adapt the propaganda of the Russian elite for the Western reader (as you wrote about "Faker"). I do not know such authors in Russia, except maybe El Murid and a few other people. Therefore, lately I prefer to read the analysis of events in English. There should be no illusions about Russia. The Russian people are good, but their current rulers are no longer. The main problem is that the elites (the ruling stratum) in Russia are incompetent, unprofessional and generally have a poorly functioning management system. Fraud and show-off are common, which became visible with the beginning of the SMO, and especially during mobilization. Ordinary people in Russia, as of course everywhere else, are engaged in their everyday affairs and make up an opinion about the world on the basis of rare viewing of official news. But the mobilization made them more interested and showed them the difference between propaganda coming from the elites and reality. Deceived expectations lead to the loss of people's trust in the ruling stratum. And this ruling layer can no longer be corrected - only changed. It is clear from the events that the elite in Russia makes one mistake after another and is almost cornered.
The bardak is a feature not a bug in my opinion. Soviet legacy has left Russia in a better position precisely due to this sudden dive into neoliberalism out of socialism, both done in less than ideal ways. Russian consciousness is marred in social problems and attempts to fix them, and a government not competent enough to boil the frog slowly. Contrast it with westerners who have to wait until 30 percent of the population are migrants before a couple people start voting center-right to quench the uneasiness they feel. Human beings in the collective are an organism on to its self and it’s a good sign we’re seeing some activity. It’s like a case of the ignorant being the only ones smart enough to reproduce, but on the scale of a country. The flaws of the stupid end up helping them succeed.
I too, support exile to Siberia. All Americans, French and Germans who do not support the Putin position on the Donbass should be rounded up forthwith, begining with Blinken, Biden, and Nuland. If they survive a year in Siberia, clearly we have been too soft on them and so they should be exiled to Germany for an entire winter. Now that, Bill Gates, is how depopulation is achieved by real men, not by sniveling vaxx jabber wannabes. Meanwhile, Gates, Fauci, Soros, and Schwarb should be sent to join the traitors, but fed only fried cockroaches for the rest of their lives. Gotta say, I am really begining to enjoy this war. Oh, I nearly forgot, send Boris, Angela, Albo, the Canadian whateverheis, and Adern the transhumn horse too.
I imagine that you have already stated what you think is actually happening in Russia. (I would appreciate a link, but don't worry if that's too much to ask.)
I have maybe three different theories available to me, and none of them make much sense.
One is the corporate media narrative that Putin is trying to reestablish the Great Russian Empire and has gone totally mad. I learned years ago to not trust the news about anything important. So that theory gets a flunk without even thinking hard.
Another is a "right wing" conspiracy theory that Russia has goaded the West into a war to wear it out, in preparation for some sort of attack from the rear (say, from China). Though goodness knows the West deserves a smackdown, this does not bode well for all those "innocent" Americans just trying to get along. And beyond that, I have no idea how valid this theory might be.
And a third comes from the New Age community. It is a bit disjointed, but concentrates on the "real" players for control of Earth, which are not the state governments (or their bureaucracies) but various "secret" groups that make all their plays behind the scenes. In this scenario, we have "White Hats" (pro-human freedom) "Black Hats" (anti-human or slavers) and "others." Our own government and corporate world seem enamored with the Black Hats. Trump, Putin, Xi and many others are trying in various ways to support the White Hats. Various Others aren't so sure either of the major groups really have the best interests of humanity in mind. After a while it all starts to sound like CIA fairy tales.
The only problem is that we know that ETs and other more bizarre political players really exist and have been messing around with Earth for a long time. So the more "mainstream" theories seem perilously superficial and simple-minded from this point of view. None of these are very convincing to me. Most people still have no clue what happened when JFK was killed in 1963 of when 9/11 happened in 2001, so who knows if we will ever know the truth about Russia and their Special Military Operation in Ukraine.
I apologize for interfering, since your question is not addressed to me, and also for poor English.
You can consider the fourth version.
The world is so arranged that the leading stratum, the elite, the rulers will certainly form in the communities of people. Even herd animals have leaders. These leaders hire servants for themselves and this structure is called the state by people. The rest of the people are subjects of the rulers, no matter what they say about "democracy".
There are many such complex structures of rulers, their servants and ordinary people on Earth. They are distributed geographically and are called countries. Some rulers are not completely independent, but are themselves vassals of other rulers.
The rulers of the countries interact with each other, allocating resources, and conflicts inevitably arise about this.
The purpose of resource allocation, as Caitlin Johnstone wrote well recently, is to prevent others from becoming richer than themselves - https://caitlinjohnstone.substack.com/p/if-everyone-is-king-then-no-one-is
The conflict in Ukraine is due to such a redistribution of resources.
No need to apologize...
Your understanding is good, but I detect another reason why people tend to demand a government, and that is the existence of psychopaths (habitual criminals) on Earth. People require some sort of system for removing such persons from the community without too much disturbing our sense of fairness. Thus, systems of law and governance come about.
These systems, when implemented honestly, tend to work. But they are, of course, under constant attack from criminals. As those attacks continue, the honesty of those governing weakens and finally collapses, and you get what most of us know today as "government."
These, then, tend to act like rival gangs, fighting over resources rather than learning how to make the wisest use of what is already available to them. They tend to treat their people poorly. And this is one genus of war and conscription.
Well...... maybe, like the average Ukrainian should have been, some Russians should have been more concerned about the attempted genocide of the people of the Donbass for the last 8 years and perhaps the Russian government would have taken care of the situation 8 years ago? .... And it would have been a whole lot easier!
I’d say that supposed Dagestan poster with 160k views, calling for sabotage, is probably the US Pentagon Centcom. That is what they do.
Time as come for Eurasia to react as a unique front against nazi USA, EU and Nato. I'm European, but I tell you, the last 3 years of heavy Propaganda and mental warfare held by Nato inside Europe, has turned the great majority of europeans in a mass of idiots sheeps, ready to stay 90 degrees on the their knees to the Neo Nazi commanders.
No hope in Europe old good discernment ! Not anymore, sadly
What do you think about:
https://stansheppard.substack.com/p/weird-war?utm_source=post-email-title&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email&sort=new ?
Fine article, I wrote a similar one.
I mean, what do you mean about some serious questions pointed out by the article
I asked the same serious questions in a similar article titled, "Questions ... Questions That Need Answers."
If there are specific points you want to bring up, feel free to.
You are being much too negative. There are liberal crazies everywhere. Why would Russia be an exception. Wait til the referenda are over and the regions are properly united to Russia and then the serious push will come. Internally a few thousand protesters are not much. Autumn rains are coming and General Winter is not far behind.
I wasn't trying to be negative, I'm pumped, really.
I wonder about demoralization after a few nuclear detonations in Ukraine which are surely coming before General Winter starts slapping people around and around again. What does NATO have to lose by crossing a few more red lines? They can say them Russkies freaked out and used tactical nuclear weapons as they roll into the Western Ukraine. US is said to have used tactical nuclear weapons in both Iraq and Afghanistan so Ukraine might be next.