He uses the Ukrainians own numbers about unit strengths, losses etc to make his case and he low balls them. For example Ukrainian losses at Mariupol alone may well have been 15k total just based on the number of defenders but he low balls it to 10k. He points out that if you take the Ukrainian authorities at their word about their losses around Sever Donetsk in May and June for example and go with even a low ball end that you have 6k Ukrainian losses for those 2 months on that front. So you have 16k losses in just 2 battles. But we also had the heavy fighting around Kherson, popasnya, Opitnoe, Krasny Liman, Izum, Bakhmut, Marinka etc etc. So a bit under 100k is not a stretch at all. The dude than shows the Ukrainians laws regarding compensation for the families of war dead and points out that if Ukraine actually paid they would be broke hence just say everyone is missing and we only have 12k KIAs for sure.
I also think a little less than 100k is accurate and thats not even remotely close to enough for attrition to be a viable strategy unless Russias losses are rock bottom which they are not. As for the strategy imo what we are seeing is the best Russia can do with in the confines of the elites ideological constraints. Changing course to win the war is just as fatal to their future prospects as is victory so no need to move outside their comfort zone as far as they are concerned.
Personally I wouldn't even be counting on any big game changing offensives from Russia either. Just getting one of those off the ground would require stepping onto the slippery slope towards actual societal mobilization and I cant see the Kremlinites allowing that. Once you allow for the even a little bit of a war footing the next thing you know people might demand more to win harder and faster. Yes the Russian elite would seriously prefer a long and indecisive war with no societal mobilization over a quick and victorious one where society is mobilized. If it can be shown that difficult wars can be won when the elites financial and ideological interests are shelved and rebuked than well....lets not go there.
Of course the US is also operating within the constraints of the ruling classes ideology. They can give Ukraine all the best gear, all the best real time intel and infinity shekels. Its not a big sacrifice really for the US but its also the best they can do. Will it be enough to beat Russia decisively? I don't know. This gay ass wars outcome is basically a matter of which ruling class is cock blocking their countries chances of victory the least and that's a tough call to make.
As of now Wanger is really the only show in town for Russia. But Wagner alone cant generate the needed mass and concentration of force to conduct game changing offensives. You need a real army for that so Russia isn't going anywhere fast anytime soon. The real question is will Ukraine be able to conduct large strategic offensives capable of straight defeating Russia. So far all Ukraines especially successful offensives were against very minimal resistance. Will the Ukrainians be able to do their own Mariupols and Soledars in reverse though? I think they just might be able to.
>unless Russias losses are rock bottom which they are not.
I find it hard to believe that Wagner could go on the offensive against heavily fortified positions and not take heavy losses. There are people on Twitter saying that they'd send teams of 8 men to die and in the process draw enemy fire that would be punished by artillery.
That's how they were using their convicts. Very WH40k but how many convicts do they need to keep fighting like that?
This is just my speculation here but my assumption is that WagnerVSafu casualties in Soledar were close to parity until the Ukrainians in the city were encircled at which point the ratio tipped in Wagners favor.
Like you say in your essay here the #1 reason attackers need numerical advantage is to exploit success. Its not so much that you need to smother a machine gun nest in bodies its that if you punch a whole in the enemy's lines you need enough guys to exploit it to the utmost.
During the battle of Stalingrad the Soviets were just as likely to be attacking as defending even in the early stages, they were constantly throwing their reserves onto the attack because the best defence was just to keep the Germans too busy to conduct a well planned offensive for themselves. I think the circumstantial evidence points to the AFU fighting its defensive battles the same way just on a smaller scale. The AFU is constantly throwing a platoon here or company there at Wagner to keep them occupied for the day. 30 guys sacrificed to make sure the front line doesn't move is a small price.
If Wagner was literally just sending dudes to die i imagine word would get out and you would see convicts just going over to the Ukrainians quite often. Probably Wagner just uses the convicts to fix the enemy in place and than uses their better troops to flank or exploit the revealed enemy position.
Like the convicts are told "we think the enemy has a machine gun over there, move in that direction and when the Ukrainians fire get down and shoot back, we will hit the gun team with mortars and send a storm detachment to flank them, when you see the storm detachment shift fire away from them, everyone of you who makes it gets a few days off and double ration of vodka".
"they were constantly throwing their reserves onto the attack because the best defence was just to keep the Germans too busy to conduct a well planned offensive for themselves". So, Vince Lombardi was right after all: "the best defense is a good offense." Who says American football teaches no useful life lessons?
Thank you for the update. You have had a good string of articles in the past few weeks.
Wagner now recruits in prison ; they used to recruit petty officers from the army and soldiers from among the poor. It appears that Ukraine also largely recruits its frontline soldiers from the lowest rungs of society. Is it that bad for a society that many men from the bottom 10-20% are killed ?
I view the emigration of middle class and upper-middle class families both from Ukraine and Russia as the real disaster. The number of emigrants far exceeds the number of dead and maimed !!!
Recruiting prisoners is a great tool for rehabilitation and the creation of valuable contributors to society. If Russian prisons are anything like those in the USSA, prisoners are fed, bedded, given a place to exercise, libraries to expand their minds, and lots of fellow convicts to teach them new criminal skills.
When I was drafted into the US Army in 1970 (after dropping out of college), almost all of my friends had been given the option of military service or jail because of drug offenses. They turned out, with two exceptions that I am aware of, to be fine soldiers and honorable.
In America, today is Groundhog Day. An interesting parallel because what I would propose has been done before, across the ages and throughout different cultures.
Expell Chabad-Lubavitch and Jews who demonstrate their priorities for world Jewery and not their sovereign nations. Revoke anyone with duel citizenship or allegiance to Israel.
Putin and Zelensky impeached, as well as all of the old guard of Soviet Israel. I mean, Russia. Impose policies of isolationism. Reject notions of multipolarity and globalism. Allow the Orthodox church to negotiate a treaty that both citizens of Ukraine and Russia find satisfactory. No outside interference. No NATO. No think-tanks. Strength through peace, not through realpolitiks. Realizing this is a brothers' war financed by parasites with malignant, self-serving interests. Let a girl dream at least.
If you have not seen it, here is an article for you, Rolo.
'This conflict will fundamentally change Russia': A young Muscovite explains why he volunteered to fight Ukraine
RT speaks with a soldier who quit a cushy IT job to become a drone operator in Donbass
In an interview with RT, Nikita told what encourages young Russian men to fight in the conflict, explained how the Donbass militia differs from the regular Russian Army and private military companies (PMCs). He also told how the current struggle resembles ancient wars, and speculated on how he and his comrades-in-arms could change Russia for the better after their victorious return home.
If one does not have access to empirical data, one must them feel the shapes and apply intuition. I have done this successfully for 80 years. So suffer me while I wax philosophical.
A chain is as strong as its weakest link. Russia's weakest link is its corrupt and or incompetent bureaucracy. If I am wrong on this, it does not matter. Read on.
America's weakest links are: ambivilant allies, crap missiles; complex tanks; but much worse, no source of key raw materials and munitiions factories. The US is big on mouth but small on pocket, and it's hands are shaking. Bidens most impressive asset is his threats, impressive in aspect but non-existent on the battlefield. The US does not have the capaicity to win the war and half of all Spain want out.
The other allies, France and Germany have revolutions growing like cancers in their bellies, and PR-value allies like Australia will evaporate the moment Singapore cancels their fuel supply. America's position is untenable and that, at the end of the day , is all that matters.
Russia has its own problems, which will be addressed after this war is over. I hope.
Ya gotta laugh, Bill. For half a million years of human existence we oldies were venerated as the receptacles of wisdom. Now we are silly old farts and the world is run by young sociopaths who have never left school. Did I say laugh? What else can you do as humanity teeters on the brink of extinction? I suppose we could rebel. I myself will mount a rebel flag and RPG on my walking frame and charge the house of government. I will go down gloriously in a hail of bullets, which beats the shit out of a lingering end in an old foks home.
The vaunted Russian winter offensive consists probably in that ongoing attack on the front from Orikhiv to Ugledar.
If you ask me, I'd speculate that Russia aim at this point is to wear out Western governments by dragging the war along, so they stop providing aid to Ukraine because it's a major effort with no returns that grows more and more politically inconvenient with each passing day. Without external military support equipment Ukraine cannot resist.
" it's a major effort with no returns that grows more and more politically inconvenient with each passing day. Without external military support equipment Ukraine cannot resist."
RAND agrees: "The RAND Corporation’s new report, “Avoiding a long war: US policy and the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict”, represents just such a split. It indicates that powerful elites have broken with the majority opinion because they think the current policy is hurting the United States. We believe this shift in perspective is going to gain momentum until it triggers a more-assertive demand for negotiations. In other words, the RAND report is the first step towards ending the war."
I have a deep sense all published reports are propaganda and have little idea of anything. My only and simple question has been why Ukraine. Why in 1917, why in 1933, why now? Are these events connected? Now I wonder how can it be so easy to pit conscripts/brothers against each other as you describe. If its this easy there its this easy everywhere?
So far Japan is the only country having been nuked, back when there weren't but a few bombs...
I have looked into the whole nuclear weapons thing in some depth and have come to the conclusion that just like men going to the moon in 1969 , when I was 17 , it is all BS and just another means to terrify us and drive us crazy which has worked in spades right across the world. Just because 99% of people believe something to be true doesn`t mean it is . So for me this is WW3 all right but no nuclear weapons will be brought into play because in reality they do not exist and I have spent most of my life in fear of something that can never happen.
"win the war conclusively already"- Isn't this what we all want?
I keep wondering if there's any way to verify that Russia has mobilized as much as it's claiming. The promise of a swift victory after the fresh recruits make their appearance is beginning to feel like another "just 2 more weeks, guys!"
>>If you disagree with my assessment, then explain their strategy to me like I’m slow. What is your win scenario for Russia?<<
There was a problem obvious from the very beginning. Since Putin's claimed security objective was to prevent Ukraine from becoming a NATO missile base, demilitarization and denazification couldn't accomplish this without Russia taking over the entire country. I never understand contemplation of limited territorial gains.
I'm entertaining the hypothesis, that the war is a contrived distraction for the peoples of Europe and the West, and most of Asia, to keep them from noticing the globalist takeover of their governments and imposition of draconian control and civilizational retrograde. So no one wants an end.
That may be going too far, of course, but how else to explain the stalemate and irrationality that you've been discussing?
I get the feeling that even if the Russian flag was seen fluttering over Kiev, Rolo would explain this away by claiming that a gust of high wind picked it up and carried it to the top of a building in downtown Kiev where it got caught on a mobile phone mast. Nothing to see here.
I think that Russia is winning and the reason I say this is two-fold: first, British politicians are still claiming that Ukraine will win and the utility of British cabinet ministers lie only in their status as inverse barometers of the truth. Secondly, the Western press has notably dropped all the sneering, triumphalist articles about how badly Russia is performing and how 'totally brillyun' Ukraine is getting ready to march on Moscow.
Most people here understand the case for doing this differently. Tell me why the Russian leadership is doing what they are doing ... do your best to make it make sense (not just 'they are idiots').
Non-expert here. Appreciate your well-reasoned viewpoints, refreshing change from the Russian cheerleaders. But as a non-expert, this puzzles me:
"And then there are the apologists who say that there is simply no other way to wage war. They count on our ignorance because this is simply not true. People who say nonsense like that don’t understand the concept of maneuver warfare, of encirclements or of localized force superiority - or at least they pretend not to. In short, the Russian plan ought to be to use overwhelming numbers to gain an advantage and defeat Ukraine’s army that way. Numerical superiority allows one to pin, encircle, overwhelm, breakthrough, outpace, and follow-through against an enemy. Instead, Russia has forgone the use of such advantages to fight the enemy head-on, and on their terms. "
This actually sounds more like the 5D cheerleaders. After a month or so, when people began asking why Mighty Russia hadn't simply rolled over Ukraine, I'd swear that Saker & Co. and that Martynov guy would smugly say "You poorly educated Americans only understand war as shock and awe. Modern warfare is all about maneuverability. Russia is trapping Ukrainian forces in one cauldron after another and moving on. It's not about gaining territory, it's about maneuverability! " And so on. You seem to be saying that they were right about Russia, to begin with, but Russia has, for some reason, reverted to WWI style trench warfare (the "meat grinder" of the 5D apologists). Is there a subtlety here I'm just not getting as I sit in my armchair?
So I wonder why this story on Vox Day's site: "David Ignatius has been a career-long mouthpiece for the US State Department. He has just been called in by the current Secretary of State Antony Blinken to convey an urgent new message to President Vladimir Putin, the Security Council, and the General Staff in Moscow.
For the first time since the special military operation began last year, the war party in Washington is offering terms of concession to Russia’s security objectives explicitly and directly, without the Ukrainians in the way."
He cited Q anon, and he just wrote a little requiem https://voxday.net/2023/02/01/the-saker-closes-shop/, so it's not like he's always right, ha ha! I called the claims to your attention because in my map you're better at vetting your sources. The claim that Neocons offered allegedly offered such tempting concessions via the WaPo appeared to conflict with your reports from the ground.
"We were all pessimists back then, in the very early days of the Soul War, when we didn’t even realize it was a war, when the species was just starting to notice the vampire squid that had been wrapped around its face since the Bronze Age. Most of us didn’t even realize it had been there that long until much later in the process; even those of us who’d started paying attention figured it was fifty years old, a century tops. In those days the future didn’t seem to contain anything but solar panels, algorithmic control grids, and cricket powder, with the big divide being between those broken enough to look forward to it and everyone else." - John Carter, https://barsoom.substack.com/p/2043
Good questions! In my map, the "Western elites" conducting their war on Westernkind burned down a lot of trust among the conscious, moral people still standing in America and the former West.
If their memetic dominance is as powerful as they seem to think, then perhaps they can afford the cost. From my perspective, they've blown their cover with the people who matter. Maps that highlight their previously hidden armies and weaponry are spreading among the people that matter. Awareness of their psychopathic vision farming us as livestock grows with every confirming data point they generate... and their inverted-morality psyop machine generates a lot of data points. Can they afford it? Can they trick us into the slave pens they envision for us before we notice? I pray not. My money is on a future like https://barsoom.substack.com/p/2043
Ukraine and Russia are both fascist kleptocracies. Cheerleading for either side is like watching the Bloods and the Crips going at it and deciding which group has the high moral ground. Not to mention the mercenary arms dealers slobbering over all the money they are making. This isn't a fairy tale and there is no white hat winning in the end. The only way I can see the bloodshed ending is if a coup led by oligarchs tired of having their yachts seized overthrows Putin and his clique.
Truth 100% the words fascist is thrown around like snowballs. The truth is half of the clowns using the word don't know what fascism is, and wouldn't know a fascist if he or she looked them in the eyes. Great summary. Keep writing.
The stalemate isn’t because of some evenly matched clash. For months it’s pretty obvious Russia just doesn’t want to advance. That’s why Strelkov makes a fair point, they got the convicts rushing against brick walls to look busy.
The war is winding down, solovyov will soon declare victory because UN will denounce bribery and naughty behavior in the afu and a settlement will be reached.
Then its full steam ahead to taking instructions from globohomo. Not like they paused that anyway. Maybe Putin can recite the Quran for our people again to put us at ease.
Hopefully once our time comes we will not be digging up the mass graves to burn the bodies in pyres and then scatter the ashes into rivers so there can never be any trace. I hope this time we will leave the bodies in the middle of the street, as a message.
Babylon wages war on Babylon, Babylon vanquishes the evil of Babylon, Babylon falls and Babylon rises.
The wars aren't real but the genocides of your people are.
How they massacre you like cattle! How God weeps for your misguided souls!
Their merchants did trade, their leader wore their cross, are you truly so blinded by the Serpent's propaganda?! Where did their scientists go?! You question where the bodies went, where do we put ours?!
This SBU defector makes a good case for total Ukrainian permanent losses due to all causes being a little less than 100k.
https://t.me/ukr_leaks/4254
He uses the Ukrainians own numbers about unit strengths, losses etc to make his case and he low balls them. For example Ukrainian losses at Mariupol alone may well have been 15k total just based on the number of defenders but he low balls it to 10k. He points out that if you take the Ukrainian authorities at their word about their losses around Sever Donetsk in May and June for example and go with even a low ball end that you have 6k Ukrainian losses for those 2 months on that front. So you have 16k losses in just 2 battles. But we also had the heavy fighting around Kherson, popasnya, Opitnoe, Krasny Liman, Izum, Bakhmut, Marinka etc etc. So a bit under 100k is not a stretch at all. The dude than shows the Ukrainians laws regarding compensation for the families of war dead and points out that if Ukraine actually paid they would be broke hence just say everyone is missing and we only have 12k KIAs for sure.
I also think a little less than 100k is accurate and thats not even remotely close to enough for attrition to be a viable strategy unless Russias losses are rock bottom which they are not. As for the strategy imo what we are seeing is the best Russia can do with in the confines of the elites ideological constraints. Changing course to win the war is just as fatal to their future prospects as is victory so no need to move outside their comfort zone as far as they are concerned.
Personally I wouldn't even be counting on any big game changing offensives from Russia either. Just getting one of those off the ground would require stepping onto the slippery slope towards actual societal mobilization and I cant see the Kremlinites allowing that. Once you allow for the even a little bit of a war footing the next thing you know people might demand more to win harder and faster. Yes the Russian elite would seriously prefer a long and indecisive war with no societal mobilization over a quick and victorious one where society is mobilized. If it can be shown that difficult wars can be won when the elites financial and ideological interests are shelved and rebuked than well....lets not go there.
Of course the US is also operating within the constraints of the ruling classes ideology. They can give Ukraine all the best gear, all the best real time intel and infinity shekels. Its not a big sacrifice really for the US but its also the best they can do. Will it be enough to beat Russia decisively? I don't know. This gay ass wars outcome is basically a matter of which ruling class is cock blocking their countries chances of victory the least and that's a tough call to make.
As of now Wanger is really the only show in town for Russia. But Wagner alone cant generate the needed mass and concentration of force to conduct game changing offensives. You need a real army for that so Russia isn't going anywhere fast anytime soon. The real question is will Ukraine be able to conduct large strategic offensives capable of straight defeating Russia. So far all Ukraines especially successful offensives were against very minimal resistance. Will the Ukrainians be able to do their own Mariupols and Soledars in reverse though? I think they just might be able to.
Its all eyes on the AFU for now.
>unless Russias losses are rock bottom which they are not.
I find it hard to believe that Wagner could go on the offensive against heavily fortified positions and not take heavy losses. There are people on Twitter saying that they'd send teams of 8 men to die and in the process draw enemy fire that would be punished by artillery.
That's how they were using their convicts. Very WH40k but how many convicts do they need to keep fighting like that?
This is just my speculation here but my assumption is that WagnerVSafu casualties in Soledar were close to parity until the Ukrainians in the city were encircled at which point the ratio tipped in Wagners favor.
Like you say in your essay here the #1 reason attackers need numerical advantage is to exploit success. Its not so much that you need to smother a machine gun nest in bodies its that if you punch a whole in the enemy's lines you need enough guys to exploit it to the utmost.
During the battle of Stalingrad the Soviets were just as likely to be attacking as defending even in the early stages, they were constantly throwing their reserves onto the attack because the best defence was just to keep the Germans too busy to conduct a well planned offensive for themselves. I think the circumstantial evidence points to the AFU fighting its defensive battles the same way just on a smaller scale. The AFU is constantly throwing a platoon here or company there at Wagner to keep them occupied for the day. 30 guys sacrificed to make sure the front line doesn't move is a small price.
If Wagner was literally just sending dudes to die i imagine word would get out and you would see convicts just going over to the Ukrainians quite often. Probably Wagner just uses the convicts to fix the enemy in place and than uses their better troops to flank or exploit the revealed enemy position.
Like the convicts are told "we think the enemy has a machine gun over there, move in that direction and when the Ukrainians fire get down and shoot back, we will hit the gun team with mortars and send a storm detachment to flank them, when you see the storm detachment shift fire away from them, everyone of you who makes it gets a few days off and double ration of vodka".
"they were constantly throwing their reserves onto the attack because the best defence was just to keep the Germans too busy to conduct a well planned offensive for themselves". So, Vince Lombardi was right after all: "the best defense is a good offense." Who says American football teaches no useful life lessons?
Word is the AFU is amassing corps-level quantities of soldiers and war toys in two places, Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk for a future offensive.
Rolo,
Thank you for the update. You have had a good string of articles in the past few weeks.
Wagner now recruits in prison ; they used to recruit petty officers from the army and soldiers from among the poor. It appears that Ukraine also largely recruits its frontline soldiers from the lowest rungs of society. Is it that bad for a society that many men from the bottom 10-20% are killed ?
I view the emigration of middle class and upper-middle class families both from Ukraine and Russia as the real disaster. The number of emigrants far exceeds the number of dead and maimed !!!
Yeah they used up a lot of convicts taking Soledar.
A few more Soledars and there won't be any prisoners in Russia left.
I suggest buying up prisoners from Uzbekistan.
Recruiting prisoners is a great tool for rehabilitation and the creation of valuable contributors to society. If Russian prisons are anything like those in the USSA, prisoners are fed, bedded, given a place to exercise, libraries to expand their minds, and lots of fellow convicts to teach them new criminal skills.
When I was drafted into the US Army in 1970 (after dropping out of college), almost all of my friends had been given the option of military service or jail because of drug offenses. They turned out, with two exceptions that I am aware of, to be fine soldiers and honorable.
I suspect most of the emigrants will return after the war, no matter who wins.
"What is your win scenario for Russia?"
In America, today is Groundhog Day. An interesting parallel because what I would propose has been done before, across the ages and throughout different cultures.
Expell Chabad-Lubavitch and Jews who demonstrate their priorities for world Jewery and not their sovereign nations. Revoke anyone with duel citizenship or allegiance to Israel.
Putin and Zelensky impeached, as well as all of the old guard of Soviet Israel. I mean, Russia. Impose policies of isolationism. Reject notions of multipolarity and globalism. Allow the Orthodox church to negotiate a treaty that both citizens of Ukraine and Russia find satisfactory. No outside interference. No NATO. No think-tanks. Strength through peace, not through realpolitiks. Realizing this is a brothers' war financed by parasites with malignant, self-serving interests. Let a girl dream at least.
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-729243
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-religion-moscow-government-1a28b354f992f6d4d7f710c691e9792e
If you have not seen it, here is an article for you, Rolo.
'This conflict will fundamentally change Russia': A young Muscovite explains why he volunteered to fight Ukraine
RT speaks with a soldier who quit a cushy IT job to become a drone operator in Donbass
In an interview with RT, Nikita told what encourages young Russian men to fight in the conflict, explained how the Donbass militia differs from the regular Russian Army and private military companies (PMCs). He also told how the current struggle resembles ancient wars, and speculated on how he and his comrades-in-arms could change Russia for the better after their victorious return home.
https://www.rt.com/russia/570705-if-we-back-down-today/
May I please inject an alternative overview.
If one does not have access to empirical data, one must them feel the shapes and apply intuition. I have done this successfully for 80 years. So suffer me while I wax philosophical.
A chain is as strong as its weakest link. Russia's weakest link is its corrupt and or incompetent bureaucracy. If I am wrong on this, it does not matter. Read on.
America's weakest links are: ambivilant allies, crap missiles; complex tanks; but much worse, no source of key raw materials and munitiions factories. The US is big on mouth but small on pocket, and it's hands are shaking. Bidens most impressive asset is his threats, impressive in aspect but non-existent on the battlefield. The US does not have the capaicity to win the war and half of all Spain want out.
The other allies, France and Germany have revolutions growing like cancers in their bellies, and PR-value allies like Australia will evaporate the moment Singapore cancels their fuel supply. America's position is untenable and that, at the end of the day , is all that matters.
Russia has its own problems, which will be addressed after this war is over. I hope.
I agree and as you mentioned your age I am 70 and much water has passed under many bridges during my life time.
Ya gotta laugh, Bill. For half a million years of human existence we oldies were venerated as the receptacles of wisdom. Now we are silly old farts and the world is run by young sociopaths who have never left school. Did I say laugh? What else can you do as humanity teeters on the brink of extinction? I suppose we could rebel. I myself will mount a rebel flag and RPG on my walking frame and charge the house of government. I will go down gloriously in a hail of bullets, which beats the shit out of a lingering end in an old foks home.
The vaunted Russian winter offensive consists probably in that ongoing attack on the front from Orikhiv to Ugledar.
If you ask me, I'd speculate that Russia aim at this point is to wear out Western governments by dragging the war along, so they stop providing aid to Ukraine because it's a major effort with no returns that grows more and more politically inconvenient with each passing day. Without external military support equipment Ukraine cannot resist.
" it's a major effort with no returns that grows more and more politically inconvenient with each passing day. Without external military support equipment Ukraine cannot resist."
RAND agrees: "The RAND Corporation’s new report, “Avoiding a long war: US policy and the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict”, represents just such a split. It indicates that powerful elites have broken with the majority opinion because they think the current policy is hurting the United States. We believe this shift in perspective is going to gain momentum until it triggers a more-assertive demand for negotiations. In other words, the RAND report is the first step towards ending the war."
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/ukraine-is-sinking-are-western-elites-bailing-out/
Oh please Mike Whitney I don't read him, you could have picked Anglin
Not endorsing Whitney, just using his summary of the RAND report (which he links to).
Then again here https://southfront.org/russian-large-scale-combat-actions-in-ukraine-expected-in-february/ announces a huge Russian offensive for the anniversary of the SMO, attacks springing from everywhere + Belarus. I don't know, it sounds 5D chess to me.
I have a deep sense all published reports are propaganda and have little idea of anything. My only and simple question has been why Ukraine. Why in 1917, why in 1933, why now? Are these events connected? Now I wonder how can it be so easy to pit conscripts/brothers against each other as you describe. If its this easy there its this easy everywhere?
So far Japan is the only country having been nuked, back when there weren't but a few bombs...
I have looked into the whole nuclear weapons thing in some depth and have come to the conclusion that just like men going to the moon in 1969 , when I was 17 , it is all BS and just another means to terrify us and drive us crazy which has worked in spades right across the world. Just because 99% of people believe something to be true doesn`t mean it is . So for me this is WW3 all right but no nuclear weapons will be brought into play because in reality they do not exist and I have spent most of my life in fear of something that can never happen.
Brain transplant didn't take, huh?
If you are addressing to me and have nothing better or more constructive to say just EFF OFF .
Interesting perception.
One of the possibilities is that Russia wants a protracted war.
Remember that Putin told us he wanted to free Europe from the shackles of the US? Would a quick decisive win in the Ukraine have done that?
"win the war conclusively already"- Isn't this what we all want?
I keep wondering if there's any way to verify that Russia has mobilized as much as it's claiming. The promise of a swift victory after the fresh recruits make their appearance is beginning to feel like another "just 2 more weeks, guys!"
>>If you disagree with my assessment, then explain their strategy to me like I’m slow. What is your win scenario for Russia?<<
There was a problem obvious from the very beginning. Since Putin's claimed security objective was to prevent Ukraine from becoming a NATO missile base, demilitarization and denazification couldn't accomplish this without Russia taking over the entire country. I never understand contemplation of limited territorial gains.
I'm entertaining the hypothesis, that the war is a contrived distraction for the peoples of Europe and the West, and most of Asia, to keep them from noticing the globalist takeover of their governments and imposition of draconian control and civilizational retrograde. So no one wants an end.
That may be going too far, of course, but how else to explain the stalemate and irrationality that you've been discussing?
I get the feeling that even if the Russian flag was seen fluttering over Kiev, Rolo would explain this away by claiming that a gust of high wind picked it up and carried it to the top of a building in downtown Kiev where it got caught on a mobile phone mast. Nothing to see here.
I think that Russia is winning and the reason I say this is two-fold: first, British politicians are still claiming that Ukraine will win and the utility of British cabinet ministers lie only in their status as inverse barometers of the truth. Secondly, the Western press has notably dropped all the sneering, triumphalist articles about how badly Russia is performing and how 'totally brillyun' Ukraine is getting ready to march on Moscow.
Most people here understand the case for doing this differently. Tell me why the Russian leadership is doing what they are doing ... do your best to make it make sense (not just 'they are idiots').
Non-expert here. Appreciate your well-reasoned viewpoints, refreshing change from the Russian cheerleaders. But as a non-expert, this puzzles me:
"And then there are the apologists who say that there is simply no other way to wage war. They count on our ignorance because this is simply not true. People who say nonsense like that don’t understand the concept of maneuver warfare, of encirclements or of localized force superiority - or at least they pretend not to. In short, the Russian plan ought to be to use overwhelming numbers to gain an advantage and defeat Ukraine’s army that way. Numerical superiority allows one to pin, encircle, overwhelm, breakthrough, outpace, and follow-through against an enemy. Instead, Russia has forgone the use of such advantages to fight the enemy head-on, and on their terms. "
This actually sounds more like the 5D cheerleaders. After a month or so, when people began asking why Mighty Russia hadn't simply rolled over Ukraine, I'd swear that Saker & Co. and that Martynov guy would smugly say "You poorly educated Americans only understand war as shock and awe. Modern warfare is all about maneuverability. Russia is trapping Ukrainian forces in one cauldron after another and moving on. It's not about gaining territory, it's about maneuverability! " And so on. You seem to be saying that they were right about Russia, to begin with, but Russia has, for some reason, reverted to WWI style trench warfare (the "meat grinder" of the 5D apologists). Is there a subtlety here I'm just not getting as I sit in my armchair?
The subtlety is that Russia didn't do any of that.
The 5D is that even though we could see that they weren't doing it because of a lack of men, we were told that this was, in fact, occurring.
So I wonder why this story on Vox Day's site: "David Ignatius has been a career-long mouthpiece for the US State Department. He has just been called in by the current Secretary of State Antony Blinken to convey an urgent new message to President Vladimir Putin, the Security Council, and the General Staff in Moscow.
For the first time since the special military operation began last year, the war party in Washington is offering terms of concession to Russia’s security objectives explicitly and directly, without the Ukrainians in the way."
https://voxday.net/2023/02/02/surrender-means-success/
I appreciate your perspective, Rolo. Otherwise I'd be left at the mercy of sources such as that quoted above.
small typo: This along gave them
Didn't Vox Day promote Q anon for years?
FWIW, today Vox cited http://johnhelmer.net/blinken-concedes-war-is-lost-offers-kremlin-ukrainian-demilitarization-crimea-donbass-zaporozhe-and-restriction-of-new-tanks-to-western-ukraine-if-there-is-no-russian-offensive/#more-70567
and he did celebrate Q anon, for years, so there's that.
He cited Q anon, and he just wrote a little requiem https://voxday.net/2023/02/01/the-saker-closes-shop/, so it's not like he's always right, ha ha! I called the claims to your attention because in my map you're better at vetting your sources. The claim that Neocons offered allegedly offered such tempting concessions via the WaPo appeared to conflict with your reports from the ground.
What has the United States even lost in this war? If it ends tomorrow, what did America lose, really?
The price of eggs went up, sure. But Western elites wanted to do that anyways with their Green Reset.
"We were all pessimists back then, in the very early days of the Soul War, when we didn’t even realize it was a war, when the species was just starting to notice the vampire squid that had been wrapped around its face since the Bronze Age. Most of us didn’t even realize it had been there that long until much later in the process; even those of us who’d started paying attention figured it was fifty years old, a century tops. In those days the future didn’t seem to contain anything but solar panels, algorithmic control grids, and cricket powder, with the big divide being between those broken enough to look forward to it and everyone else." - John Carter, https://barsoom.substack.com/p/2043
Good questions! In my map, the "Western elites" conducting their war on Westernkind burned down a lot of trust among the conscious, moral people still standing in America and the former West.
If their memetic dominance is as powerful as they seem to think, then perhaps they can afford the cost. From my perspective, they've blown their cover with the people who matter. Maps that highlight their previously hidden armies and weaponry are spreading among the people that matter. Awareness of their psychopathic vision farming us as livestock grows with every confirming data point they generate... and their inverted-morality psyop machine generates a lot of data points. Can they afford it? Can they trick us into the slave pens they envision for us before we notice? I pray not. My money is on a future like https://barsoom.substack.com/p/2043
Ukraine and Russia are both fascist kleptocracies. Cheerleading for either side is like watching the Bloods and the Crips going at it and deciding which group has the high moral ground. Not to mention the mercenary arms dealers slobbering over all the money they are making. This isn't a fairy tale and there is no white hat winning in the end. The only way I can see the bloodshed ending is if a coup led by oligarchs tired of having their yachts seized overthrows Putin and his clique.
>fascist
what you call disapprovingly call fascism is just liberalism.
what you would approvingly call liberalism is actually fascism.
strange world we live in.
Truth 100% the words fascist is thrown around like snowballs. The truth is half of the clowns using the word don't know what fascism is, and wouldn't know a fascist if he or she looked them in the eyes. Great summary. Keep writing.
Really gay post.
Who says Russia wants to win?
The stalemate isn’t because of some evenly matched clash. For months it’s pretty obvious Russia just doesn’t want to advance. That’s why Strelkov makes a fair point, they got the convicts rushing against brick walls to look busy.
The war is winding down, solovyov will soon declare victory because UN will denounce bribery and naughty behavior in the afu and a settlement will be reached.
Then its full steam ahead to taking instructions from globohomo. Not like they paused that anyway. Maybe Putin can recite the Quran for our people again to put us at ease.
Hopefully once our time comes we will not be digging up the mass graves to burn the bodies in pyres and then scatter the ashes into rivers so there can never be any trace. I hope this time we will leave the bodies in the middle of the street, as a message.
Babylon wages war on Babylon, Babylon vanquishes the evil of Babylon, Babylon falls and Babylon rises.
The wars aren't real but the genocides of your people are.
How they massacre you like cattle! How God weeps for your misguided souls!
Their merchants did trade, their leader wore their cross, are you truly so blinded by the Serpent's propaganda?! Where did their scientists go?! You question where the bodies went, where do we put ours?!
The head bites the tail, in death they are born.