We’re still waiting for a follow-up attack or the main push from the UAF to occur.
There was also one more update from Donbass, the townlet of Kurahova was taken by Russia in Donbass. Notice its proximity to Donetsk:
It is now a straight shot to the Dniepr river! Take a look:
Those white spots roughly the same size as Mariinka, Bakhmut, Advievka and now Kurahova are also towns, townlets and suburbs. Shouldn’t be a problem though!
I do actually think that Donetsk will be eventually given to Russia.
Ukraine isn’t putting up as much of a fight there now. They’re focused on invading Russia. This is still roughly the Arestovich formula/prediction and some sort of backroom deal appears to be what both sides are working to.
Personally, I think that Moscow is being told that some territory swap is how this situation will be decided, but that this is yet another trick. That is, they will end up holding the short end of the stick, as usual.
Here is the executive summary so far.
The UAF just waltzed deeper into Russia as if they expected no resistance
They didn’t fire an artillery barrage to cover the advance or send planes and drone waves to soften defenses
They went along the main, paved roads (which weren’t mined, or fortified)
They then hit stiff resistance and lost their probes
Now we’re waiting for their next move
We are learning a lot here, folks. This is fascinating, actually.
Basically, it seems that if the Russians put up a resistance, then the UAF just gives up. They do these probing attacks to see if they’ll hit resistance. Basically, to see if Moscow will just hand the territory over. This whole war is just backroom deals and counter-deals and backstabs. If Moscow has FINALLY gotten sick of “being led by the nose” then they could, you know, at any time, just start actually fighting this war for real.
They could start using their missiles to hit actual military targets, for example.
They could target the bridges, the depots, the command centers, the NATO manufactorums— whatever, you name it. Anything but what they’re doing now!
…
Maybe I’m being too optimistic about this attack though.
There’s still a massed UAF force in Kursk and the surrounding areas. We don’t know what they’re going to do next. Chances are, my thesis is right and they simply probed to see if Moscow would fold, met resistance and now are planning their next more.
The key thesis of this blog is that the key decision-factors in this war are POLITICAL, not military realities. The only military factor that I use in my analyses is just troop concentrations. That is, are there troops and vehicles being massed in a current area or not? If they are, I predict that an attack will come, and, invariably it always does.
But we are still speculating on how far Moscow will be willing to bend over to Kiev + Washington.
I think that we are not out of the woods yet. There are still more territory swaps planned for the future. Hell, the big multi-million subscriber Russian war-cors are all saying that what we saw was just a probe and that more is coming. In Zaporozhye, the UAF never ended up committing its reserves to try and break through the Russian defensive lines. They lost a lot of vehicles trying to probe weak spots in the line, with the expectation that the line would break quickly upon contact.
Why did they do this?
ZAnon says that this is because the UAF is just dumb and sadistic.
Me, I think that the Kremlin plan was to abandon the south, as Arestovich originally leaked, but that General Popov literally refused to go along with it and was then sent to prison for his refusal to surrender.
What was the plan or what went wrong with this latest push? I suppose we will find out in time. Or, maybe things are just getting started and I will look silly for writing this post acting as if the dust has already settled. In general, more UAF attacks are certain to follow. And I don’t think that there will be any “peace” when Trump assumes office. Rather, Zelensky might be fired because he is unable to deliver on the results that Washington wants. He is simply stealing too much and not sharing enough of his stolen loot with the GOP-aligned Deep Staters. That will have to change now that the Chabad team is reassuming control of the White House.
For my part, I continue to insist that the winning strategy for Russia is to actually fight, goddamnit, and stop doing all of these “strategic regroupings” or 5D chess traps that never seem to close. Just draw a line in the dirt and hold your ground. Use the weapons that you have. JUST FIGHT BACK ALREADY!
JUST FIGHT.
JUST FIGHT.
JUST FIGHT.
You can’t win by just being clever.
…
And now let me share some patriotic takes from Russian Telegram as per tradition.
Rumors of new French weapons being seen on the front. Here:
❗️A little about the French "Mirages".
According to some open-access reports that have recently appeared, Ukraine, thanks to agreements between the Presidents of France and Ukraine, will be able to form the first squadron as part of its Air Force by the end of January this year, armed with multi-role French Mirage 2000-5F fighters and begin the process of bringing this aviation unit to the required level of combat readiness (the ability to perform combat missions of the full spectrum intended for this type of combat aircraft). According to various estimates and reports, we may be talking about 6 or 8 aircraft.
As far as I understand, these aircraft will be transferred to Ukraine from the Air Force of the French Republic, they are gradually being replaced by more modern Rafale F3-R.
I will not go into details now regarding their tactical and technical characteristics (TTX) in the modification that will enter service with the aviation of our Armed Forces. This has already been written about by the relevant specialists and experts, but I would like to draw your attention, dear readers, in this sense, to one feature of these aircraft that should make them an important component of our Armed Forces, in terms of expanding their combat capabilities.
Yes, I mean their ability to strike ground targets. First of all, with the same Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles, which our Armed Forces already have some experience in using.
At the same time, it should be emphasized that the strike capabilities of this aircraft (belonging to category 4+) are not limited to the ability to use the standard Franco-British "shadows/scalpels" in the "full cycle" mode.
In addition to strikes with "standard" low-observable cruise missiles, which, in fact, were developed, among other things, for this aircraft, they can deliver quite effective strikes with other "air-to-surface" weapons. Moreover, what is very important, in conditions of a fairly extensive and echeloned enemy air defense, long-range.
For example, against enemy air defense systems with anti-radar missiles (ARM) of the AS37 Armat type (the range of which is a significant 110-120 km), guided (gliding) aerial bombs (AASM Hammer), about the deliveries, during the whole of the past 2024, of such ammunition, in the amount of 600 pieces, at one time, the Minister of Defense (armed forces) of France Sebastien Lecornu reported, or anti-ship missiles (ASM) of the Exocet type (having a semi-armor-piercing warhead of 165 kg of explosives), both against enemy ships and against radio-contrast ground targets.
That is, the role and place of this aircraft in our PS is more of a strike aircraft than a fighter.
Although, it is quite possible to use it for air defense (especially for intercepting enemy cruise missiles and long-range attack UAVs), due to one property of this "Mirage" - its onboard radar very clearly and qualitatively shows low-altitude air targets against the background of the earth.
It is no secret, neither for us, nor for the enemy, that the fleet of our attack aircraft (Su-25 - attack aircraft and Su-24 - frontline bomber), obviously - is small and has a fairly critical "flight time" in terms of resource, both the airframe and onboard equipment (it is not surprising, the age of these machines, produced back in the "Soviet" times, to put it mildly - is respectable). Moreover, not all of them are in combat-ready condition for various reasons.
Therefore, the arrival of French "Mirages", with fairly significant strike capabilities, even "used", I think, in this regard, will slightly improve the situation for the better.
According to our information, the Russian Federation is beginning a fundamental rethinking of its policy in the Middle East.
Relations with Iran have begun to stagnate. Tehran fears pressure from the Trump administration and is clearly trying not to demonstrate its closeness to Moscow once again.
Netanyahu's successful expansion has greatly changed the balance of power in the region. Iran's proxies are effectively paralyzed. Tehran is now thinking not about taking Jerusalem, but about preserving its own political regime.
The loss of Syria means that Russia no longer has any weighty arguments in bargaining with Israel. The only thing left for Moscow is to play on the growing contradictions between Turkey and Israel. Frankly speaking, this is not the strongest position.
Russia's military presence will be reduced to a minimum in the coming years. The only state with a large military infrastructure in the Middle East is the United States.
If the current trends continue, then in 2025 America will become the full-fledged ruler of the region, which the most successful and progressive countries are looking up to.
To understand how the situation will develop, we need to follow the dynamics of decision-making within OPEC+. An increase in oil production by the Gulf countries will mark the final transfer of the leadership baton to Washington.
Russia has no visible levers to change the situation today. During the period of the SMO, its activities in Africa and the Middle East have clearly begun to play a secondary role. The entire focus is on Ukraine.
The Kremlin will have to create additional arguments in the upcoming negotiations. It is quite possible that negotiations will not begin until such chips are accumulated.
The so-called "domestic services" continue to engage in sabotage. For example, it turns out that "VK" blocks recordings of the reading of the Holy Gospel on Christmas (https://t.me/RastaPavel/13849).
And the "supposedly domestic" Yandex [based in Tel-Aviv] refuses to record the decision to volunteer for the SVO as an achievement.
And Yandex does not show the new borders of Russia, unlike Google. Apparently, it does not want to answer the question "who does Crimea belong to?".
Again, unlike it, Google shows Abkhazia and South Ossetia quite clearly. And even the border between Ukraine and Crimea until 2022. But this supposedly “domestic resource” does not.
And Yandex and Zen pessimize and put patriotic results under "shadow bans". But Google does not. Again, Yandex is hostile.
But, for some reason, RKN [Kremlin media watchdog run by a CIA asset] is waging its "holy war" not with them, but with Google. Question: maybe YouTube was banned not only because it is “hostile” [to Russia] and not even only because it is a competitor of “sort of domestic” platforms?
Maybe there were other reasons? Bad thoughts come to mind, you know.
Yeah, people don’t know this but most of Russia’s tech companies push hardcore SJWism and censor patriotic voices within Russia. Anything from priests to nationalists or war vets — all of it used to be censored quite heavily. The idea that LGBT is banned in Russia is a joke. Just go on Russian social media and see for yourself. MAKE A Vkontakte account. It isn’t hard. And it doesn’t help that Putin publicly praised LGBT media personalities and said that “homosexuals have had a positive influence on the culture” domestically, while his international PR operation pretends that they send the gays to camps.
The narrative now is that the war in Ukraine is basically a clash between Western values and traditional ones. Both sides agree to the terms of the conflict. But how true is any of it?
R U ok Ruriksan? Have you changed your meds? I thought I must be on a different substak account there for a minutes, not used to the positive vibes oh great one.
The difference between Ukraine and Russia is that Ukraine will stop attacking if there is no breakthrough, while Russia just sends men again and again to try to force a breakthrough. Push back Ukraine in Kursk using Russians, if that does not work send in Akhmat if they fail just round up 10.000 North Koreans and send them. And the results are the same.
The war pure theater at this point, Ukraine is stagnating and pulling crazy moves because they lost their demented movie director. Trumps unpredictability is a factor here and maybe a deal has already been agreed upon.
In this link there is a picture of Gerasimov with Shoigu behind him shaking hands and grinning while taking orders from the British elites or crown. Mind you this was just before the bumbling invasion of Ukraine. Just notice the smirks and eyes of all those people in the picture, its telling.
R U ok Ruriksan? Have you changed your meds? I thought I must be on a different substak account there for a minutes, not used to the positive vibes oh great one.
The difference between Ukraine and Russia is that Ukraine will stop attacking if there is no breakthrough, while Russia just sends men again and again to try to force a breakthrough. Push back Ukraine in Kursk using Russians, if that does not work send in Akhmat if they fail just round up 10.000 North Koreans and send them. And the results are the same.
The war pure theater at this point, Ukraine is stagnating and pulling crazy moves because they lost their demented movie director. Trumps unpredictability is a factor here and maybe a deal has already been agreed upon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valery_Gerasimov#/media/File:Ben_Wallace_in_Moscow_(2022-02-11)_02.png
In this link there is a picture of Gerasimov with Shoigu behind him shaking hands and grinning while taking orders from the British elites or crown. Mind you this was just before the bumbling invasion of Ukraine. Just notice the smirks and eyes of all those people in the picture, its telling.