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Dear Mr. Rolo, allow me to add another thought I just had about all this... are you ready?...

WHY WASN'T THIS DEAL PUBLICIZED TO THE WHOLE WORLD BEFORE MOSCOW PULLED OUT ITS TROOPS? WHY DIDN'T MOSCOW DEMAND THIS?

Surely that would have been Russia's best "insurance policy"? Before moving a single troop a single inch, Zelensky must ascend a podium and announce that a deal had been (at least tentatively??) reached?

I get that the Bucha thing was probably designed to make it politically impossible for Kiev to ultimately honor the agreement, BUT STILL. It would have been A LOT more difficult to pull the plug on the deal, if it had already been made public. Like, even if Russia was accused of war crimes, the Kremlin could have agreed to a UN probe, etc. etc., blah blah blah.

Am I missing something here? Because I just don't understand why this didn't happen. WHERE WAS THE INSURANCE POLICY? Honestly, the only answer I have to these questions is that Russia was NOT negotiating from a position of strength, and had already realized that the SMO was lost by the end of March 2022 (since it wasn't supposed to be an actual military conquest; it was a Crimea-style military psy-op that failed spectacularly, and was launched without any Plan B).

What do you think, Lord Rolo? HELP ME UNDERSTAND.

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The Russians probably asked for the deal to be made public and the US simply said "lol sure after you go ahead and pull out your troops". Would the Kremlin have really refused? Especially when they were in a position of such weakness?

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Excuse me for intruding, Edward, but I'd like to point out that Simplicius more or less agreed with this yesterday. That is, he wrote: "I believe that Russia’s withdrawal from Kiev was obviously not just part of some ‘benevolent’ agreement but was already a fait accompli. We know this because Putin has previously re-classified other such withdrawals in a positive light, most famously the ‘goodwill gesture’ of giving up Snake Island, which the Russian leadership pretended was part of their benevolent grain deal and Odessa corridor. In reality, Russia had gotten outfoxed in the Snake Island gambit—it’s just a simple fact we can’t ignore. So, what better way to withdraw than to re-characterize the withdrawal in a positive light that makes it appear more a deliberate parlay than a strategic reorientation?"

"The fact is, the Russian MOD knew that the Kiev operation had become untenable due to the failure of the original objective and a complete military reorientation towards the Donbass was now essential to consolidate lines. They would have withdrawn anyway, so it was best to recolor the event in a different light for publicity’s sake.... they simply didn’t have enough troops to make any greater progress such as totally encircling Kiev or outright taking it."

Simplicius adds: "It seems plausible that Russia may have been much worse off than we thought, in terms of preparation and long-term economic potential for a major conflict. Because the confirmation that they actually considered putting an end to the entire SMO then and there could only mean to me that the Russian MOD did not think favorably or was not confident of continuing on."

I guess that's sort of an admission that things were not exactly where the 5D bloggers thought they stood at the time. But he goes on to argue that Putin brought out the documents to show to the African delegation, to convince them that Russia had already tried and failed to negotiate a peace settlement. So now, he says, if Russia is negotiating again it will be from a position of strength on the ground.

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Hi Jerry,

Thanks for that. Actually, this take seems very reasoned and level-headed. It's good to see Simplicius working with the "best available evidence", as it becomes available. However, I'm not sure you can say the same about other Big Names in "pro-Russia" punditry. Maybe I'm wrong, but I rarely see signs of introspection. Anyway, that's not really the point, I guess. It's useful to get views from across the blog spectrum, and I tip my hat to Simplicius for keepin' it real.

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But does it make sense???

Because this is what Russia's 5D people are saying as well! I got into an argument on stream yesterday just on this very topic.

The argument is that the treaty was fig leaf to cover up a military reality.

But, you see, this new narrative is designed to cover up the WORSE possibility that there was treachery afoot.

As you astutely pointed out, WHY WONT THEY RELEASE THE AGREEMENT??

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Thank you!

Speaking of "views from across the spectrum", do you folks follow Gilbert Doctorow? This morning, he is reporting that if NATO delivers F-16's to forward bases for launch against Ukraine, Russia is highly likely to try to preempt the situation by nuking those bases, whether they are located in Germany or wherever. And, that Lukashenko essentially has the codes to launch Russia's nukes on a moments' notice, if he thinks that Belarus is threatened.

What's an American donkey supposed to do? Pray into the void, and live each day as if it might be the last?

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There is indeed a significant risk of nuclear war but not for the reasons you might think.

It would be to induce a nuclear winter because of the thousands of gigatons of mantle methane i.e. free methane under the earth's crust where the Gakkel Ridge intersects the Laptev basin in the Arctic. This is far in excess of the 1400 gigatons of sedimentary methane on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf. Moreover when the ice plugging the mantle methane melts it will let go like a champagne cork popping and it would be only months before all our worries are over.

https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/12/planetary-extinction-due-to-arctic-atmospheric-methane-veil.html

see graphic by Malcolm Light

The image below, by Malcolm Light and based on Max & Lowrie (1993), from a recent post, shows vulnerable Arctic Ocean slope and deep water methane hydrates zones below 300 m depth.

Malcolm Light indicates three areas:

Area 1. Methane hydrates on the slope;

Area 2. Methane hydrates on the abyssal plane;

Area 3. Methane hydrates associated with the spreading Gakkel Ridge hydro-thermal activity (the Gakkel Riidge runs in between the northern tip of Greenland and the Laptev Sea).

It is downright uncanny how the remnant warm waters of the Gulf Stream head straight for "the champagne cork".

A nuclear winter probably would delay the inevitable for the survivors.

And this year the warming has hit overdrive.

It is way too late for carbon reductions. It is mildly ironic that many claim climate change is a hoax to usher in the NWO. It is so bad that extinction is just around the corner.

Communing with your preferred deity is about all that can be done.

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And the Arctic hasn't let go yet

https://twitter.com/NateB_Panic/status/1670782888680333312

An extreme heat event currently ripping through Mexico has been described as "hands down the worst in the country's history." Children have been killed, athletes at the country's national games hospitalised and wild birds have died en masse as temperatures approach 50C (122F

https://twitter.com/NateB_Panic/status/1670782888680333312

When this heat event ends, another is forecast to start in early July, with the country's meteorological agency saying extreme heat will persist until October

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Hi Rolo, one more (final) sub you need? Wow, finally you will stop “begging” for subs…still: I and some like minded humans appreciate your work and specific perspectivism on the situation at hand…just keep on doing this excellent work!😎

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Not a good look:

https://twitter.com/nikola_mikovic/status/1670865465084608524

Никола Миковић / Nikola Mikovic

@nikola_mikovic

If true, that means that the Kremlin has provided its Ukrainian partners with security guarantees. In other words, Russia will not strike those facilities.

Quote Tweet

War Monitor

@WarMonitors

·

51m

⚡️#BREAKING Kyiv is in talks with western weapons makers about setting up production in Ukraine — Reuters

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Rolo, I'm one of your new subscribers, whipped into shape by your acid tongue. My main reason was to read your book.

However, I'd like you to post on the recent article by Sergey Karaganov calling on the Kremlin to nuke Europe to get the attention of the neocon elites. Various follow-on pundits (Sy Hersh, Gilbert Doctorow are Westerners I know of, I'm sure there are plenty of Russians also) claim Karaganov is a Kremlin insider, or that this is absurd.

In any case, the rhetoric for nukes is ratcheting up on both sides, neocons and Russians alike. The Duran of course is shocked, shocked! But there may be merit to the idea of a Rus first strike against Poland, England, Germany, especially US bases. This of course drastically changes everyone's calculus.

I hope you don't dismiss the issue.. or claim it couldn't happen because the Rus elites are in bed with the West. Give it your best shot and I'll let my new subscription continue. Fail me and I'm bailing back to the unpaid lurkers.. Earn your damn keep, pundit-monkey!

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feel free to link what you want me to comment on. i have no problem sharing my positions on things with paid subs, so fire away.

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If anyone is donkey-brained, it's the Neocons who can't seem to get enough of this crazy war. They are unable to understand the basic fact that it's impossible to defeat a nuclear superpower on the field of battle. But, the Neocons do sign treaties (such as the Minsk agreement) and they pretend to honor them for as long as they reckon it's in their own benefit to maintain peace. That's what Putin wants: an honorable ceasefire, so he and his fellow oligarchs can get back to exploiting the peasants in peace.

In early 2022, NATO forces were preparing an invasion of the Donbass. Putin chose to respond militarily, presumably with the goal of making the war into a great expense and a boondoggle and a source of humiliation for the Neocons. But rather than going ahead with the Istanbul agreement in April 2022, the Neocons chose to escalate! And Putin chose to mobilize to counter the Western escalation. Putin's obvious strategy is to dial up the pain level for the Neocons, in hopes that they'll eventually make a tactical or strategic decision to stop the fighting and the killing.

BoJo is pretty much gone now, but who knows how long it will take for Biden's addled brain to face the fact that Russia can't be beaten? Perhaps in 2024 the landslide for Trump or RFK Jr will be so huge that the MSM can't deny it? The peasants in the US are pretty slow, but they're coming around to see what's happening.

Or maybe I'm the donkey brained one. Who knows.

I'm certain, for a fact, that I'm confused about some details.

Where is the evidence that the signatures on the Istanbul treaty were dated April 15? Is this date visible on the documents Putin flashed at the presser? Or, are we going on Tsarev's say-so?

And what exactly did Simplicius and/or Big Serge say that was so wrong, and when did they say it? It would help if you could provide the receipts (links, quotes.) Maybe Slavsquat has them? But, his article is paywalled. Why am I subscribed here, and not there? I guess I respond to sticks more than carrots.

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The neocons probably don’t fear the Kremlin elite for good reason

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Sorry, but I've got to go with Martyanov on this one. There's nothing wrong with the Kremlin's arsenal of thousands of nuclear weapons, ICBM's and other missiles, their bombers and fighter jets and fleets of battleships and submarines, or their air defense systems. Russia is out-producing the West on basic artillery and tanks and ammunition. If the Neocons think that Russia is a push-over, it's because they are ideologically blinded idiots.

Ukraine's Spring Offensive is going pretty much as the 5D bloggers said it would, at least so far.

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I don't believe that the Kremlin elite will push the button.

What reason is given to think otherwise?

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If you're talking about Gilbert Doctorow's article (mentioned in my other comment above), the argument is that the F-16s are nuclear-capable. So the Russians must do everything they possibly can, to prevent them from delivering nuclear weapons. A tactical nuclear strike against the F-16 base is guaranteed to be effective at that goal.

Doctorow's source in making this argument, is a strangely un-named "patient and knowledgeable Russian colonel in retirement" who was a guest on the Solovyev talk show.

I hope this is just sabre-rattling. But, "launch on warning" is an increasingly accepted nuclear doctrine. Nuclear capable NATO fighters flying over the Donbass or Crimea or Belarus (all Russian territory) would be about as strong a provocation as I can imagine -- not much less terrorizing than a flock of incoming ICBM's.

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But nukes are already on Russias borders or will be soon via the Balts and Finland. And not a peep from Moscow. Kiev is further away.

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Even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally. First it was "Russia is drawing the AFU into a trap (cauldrons)" then it was "Russia will attack this winter, you betcha" then it was "Bakmut is a critical, strategic city than will cause the whole UFA line to crumble all the way to the Dniepr." Bakhmut falls and crickets. Russia had a strategy and it failed spectacularly in March of 2022. Everything that has since occurred is Russian oligarchs flailing around trying to keep their seat at the global table. Honestly ask yourself if the 5D'ers present Russia as the savior of the world or fighting for "multi-polarity" with their brave Chinese allies. Meanwhile Russia is marching right along with their Western Partners in setting up the WEF PrisonPlanet.

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I wish it weren't so, but you are mostly right.

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Oh me too. I listened to Putin's speech last year and I was like "hmm, maybe he really is our guy." Putin likely still is but he's surrounded by people only looking out for their interests and not Russia's. The 5D people lost me when somehow a withdrawal, at times a rout, was this amazing attrition strategy to slaughter Ukrainians. Touting casualty numbers like a modern-day McNamara is just ghoulish.

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It makes no sense that the Treaty was trashed before the draft was signed on April 15. This does raise the question of what was the function of the signed DRAFT. Was this draft only peripherally related to the 3/29 treaty, and just written up after the failure as a memorial to what might-have-been?

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Might this article explain why people like Strelkov criticize the Russian Ministry of Defence and curse Shoigu, whilst Prigozhin gets away with gross insubordination?

https://www.voltairenet.org/article219420.html

...'President Vladimir Putin is today implementing a general reorganization of the armed forces, with the creation of a second regular army of five divisions and 26 brigades. This army will put into practice some of the methods tested by Wagner to achieve a high level of efficiency.

General Yevgeny Burdinsky, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Federation, will oversee the new army. He is a recognized command specialist....

The aim is to complete the process of transforming the armed forces, retaining only what has proved its worth. Russia already has the world’s best weapons and a remarkable strategic and tactical doctrine. Over the next few years, it intends to have the best army in the world.'

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5D is for morons. Space plus time = 4 dimensions. + Energy = 5. What about beauty, grace, odor, destructiveness, wealth, imagination etc. Idiots. The US and someone else (!!!) are 1 dimensional insects lower than baboons on crack - is their dimension stupidity, cruelty, ignorance or just money money money? Hard to tell.

Rolo is clever, but has he considered that the US and (!!!) believe in a deity who inhabits a secret fifth dimension which can only be entered if you have with you a bag full of children's severed breasts and penises preserved with human blood, saturated with radioactive isotopes, inoculated with poisonous fake vaccines along with videotaped proof that you suck (!!!) and (???) dick and pussy five times every single day?

Quiz of the day: Solve for (!!!) and (???).

Time limit - the time it takes you to puke after beginning to watch one of Joe Biden's speeches. Yes, we aim to reward the fleet!

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And while those cretins who can't do spazrithmatik are drooling, try a visit to Infinite Dimensional Lolita Space:

https://youtu.be/NaQYlqtSy84

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Not "literally retarded," just retarded.

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There may be less to see here than meets the eye. All sides are making it up as they go along. The cunning plans have all failed, but perhaps the Russians are learning on the job a bit more effectively than the rest. Poring over the entrails of failed agreements will not discern the will of Zeus.

In the mid to long term the Donkey Pizzles seem to be winning. What's not to like about heaps of dead goyim, destroyed societies, dumbed down and debased Donkey Brains misled by the Donkey Pizzles, even more obscene profits and power for joligarchs and for 'mowing the lawn' in Eastern Europe? Don't fuss about details, celebrate 'Next year in Jerusalem' and look forward to '2050 in Heavenly Jerusalem'!

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A bit off topic but could I ask readers for their 'reading lists' ?

I mean for information re: the war and what's really happening in Russia.

Slowly coming to realise I've just been addicted to watching/hearing the same things said over and over again. So I've whittled my list down to cut them out: such as Ritter and Macgregor and that whole tribe like Beletti and the Dive and theDuran etc and I've finished up with almost nothing.

Rolo and Slavsquat, Simplicius. On substack here.

A couple of Telegram channels: komsomolskaya pravda, slavyangrad, wagner, rybar.

Military Summary on YT to tell me where the front line is, what's happening. About the only YT channel I've got left.

It's not a real impressive reading list I"m left with here and I don't feel well informed. I'd be happy to see what others would suggest. If anyone cares to do so. :)

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why not start with strelkov's channel and branch out from there?

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Thanks. Heard the name before. Never been there. Knew nothing. Got my first YT vid of him up just now. I'll follow. :)

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I check out katyusha.org a couple times a week.

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thank you for that. I've put it on my list. Haven't looked yet though. ;)

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You're welcome. Edward Slavsquat always has good links when he's covering the Russian doings of Globohomo. In-browser translation is great for letting one dig around in another country's news. I dont know what you use as an aggregator but revolver and whatfinger are pretty good for us news.

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Yep, thanks. I didn't even know about 'aggregators', they're both new names to me. Thanks for them. ;)

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